Thread by @smitagnair

1. Now, thread five on #GoaElections2022.

This time, we will discuss the BJP. 

The famous ‘Ship of Theseus’ thought experiment imagines a ship whose parts have all been replaced over the years, one at a time. Does it then remain
the same ship?

https://twitter.com/smitagnair/status/1490963759137193989

2. With a majority of its candidates ‘imported’ from other parties — one or ten at a time — can we ask the same about the Goa BJP?

BJP entered the 40-member Goa Assembly for the first time in 1994 —after two failed attempts— with 4 MLAs including Manohar Parrikar.

3. In 1999, BJP was part of the Goa Government for the first time when they supported an MLA leading a splinter group of Congress. 

In less than a year, Manohar Parrikar would become the first BJP CM of Goa after another realignment of alliances.

4. In 2002, BJP returned to the house with 17 members and formed a government with support from regional allies.

While the government lasted only three years, BJP won a majority on its own in 2012 and has ruled the state since.

5.Cyclic waves in poll performance notwithstanding, BJP has steadily built a strong base across Goa over the last 30 years. 

While it will contest all 40 seats for the first time this year, the party’s candidates were in the top two spots in 34 of the 40 constituencies in 2017.

6. While the BJP has often formed alliances with parties of various ideologies, their own compass has been fairly steady in Goa, with loyal RSS karyakartas accounting for much of the party’s core group.

7. In the run-up to the 2017 polls, the first fault lines in the Goa BJP emerged, as the party inducted two senior Congress MLAs: Mauvin Godinho and Pandurang Madkaikar.

Incidentally, both had been accused of major scams by Manohar Parrikar as Leader of Opposition.

8. Soon after the 2017 election, despite winning only 13 seats, BJP managed to form a government with the support of various partners including Goa Forward, which had run on an anti-BJP plank, and the Congress-backed independent MLA Rohan Khaunte.

9. On the very first day of the new assembly, Congress MLA Vishwajit Rane walked out of the house and announced he was joining BJP.

10. Despite BJP having repeatedly accused Rane of corruption, and the party already having numbers in the house, BJP fielded Rane in the subsequent bye-poll. He won comfortably.

Rane was appointed as a minister along with Godinho, Madkaikar and several alliance partners.

11. Parrikar, who had quit as Defence Minister to take the reins in Goa, and his deputy Francis D’Souza – an ex-Congressman himself - were the only two in the 12-person cabinet to have been in the BJP six months earlier.

This, despite BJP having 8 other multi-term MLAs.

12. A year later, with Parrikar ailing, two more Congress legislators resigned from the house and joined the BJP: six-time MLA Subhash Shirodkar and ‘giant killer’ Dayanand Sopte, who had defeated BJP’s sitting Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar in 2012.

13. Following Parrikar’s death in March 2019, Pramod Sawant was appointed the state’s 13th chief minister.

MGP leader Sudin Dhavalikar was made Deputy CM, only to be unceremoniously removed from the government 7 days later after the other two MGP MLAs defected to the BJP.

14. A bigger bombshell was dropped four months later, when 10 of the 15 remaining Congress MLAs defected to the BJP.

The move was believed to be led by Babush Monserrate, who had incidentally become Panjim MLA by winning the bye-poll necessitated by Parrikar’s death.

15. These defections post Parrikar’s death came despite the BJP government enjoying a comfortable majority in the house.

16. BJP has 20 of the 25 MLAs now left in the house after a spate of pre-election resignations. Only 6 of the 20 had first entered the house as a BJP MLA.

Of the 40 candidates announced by the BJP for 2022 elections, at least 24 have been associated with a different party.

17. Incidentally, sons of both Manohar Parrikar and Shripad Naik – the founding fathers of Goa BJP and two of the party’s four MLAs in ‘94 – have been overlooked for a ticket in favour of Babush Monseratte and Pandurang Madkaikar’s wife Janita.

18. BJP’s spree of inducting outsiders has continued into the run-up to the elections.

Pravin Arlekar and Premanand Shet – two candidates announced by the BJP’s former allies MGP – have subsequently been inducted into the BJP and fielded in the same constituency.

19. BJP also inducted ex-Congress CM Ravi Naik and Goa Forward’s Jayesh Salgaonkar, who had defeated BJP minister Dilip Parulekar to make it to the house.

These inductions have led to a lot of dissatisfaction among local party workers.

20. While some leaders like Parulekar and Siddhesh Naik have apparently been pacified by being allocated important party posts, others like Laxmikant Parsekar and Utpal Parrikar have decided to rebel.

21. Parsekar told me he felt “the biggest hurt” when he realised his exit was approved by the central leadership of a party he says he had served all his life. He says he declined the “rehabilitation offers” that were made by BJP and chose to fight independently.

22. The BJP party worker faces a conundrum, with many of them expected to campaign for a person they have opposed for decades.

In some cases, they have to choose between BJP’s new-found candidate and an old party leader now contesting as an independent or on a new symbol.

23. Subash Velingkar, former Goa RSS chief known as ‘pitamaha’ of Goa BJP says that if Parrikar was alive today he would tell him: “I had warned this day would come. You should have accepted defeat against people’s mandate and returned to build a cadre.”

24.The entry of non-cadre leaders into the Goa BJP has also introduced a level of insubordination that is seldom associated with the party. There have been murmurs about constant infighting among ministers, with gossip columns reporting heated arguments in cabinet meetings.

25. The issue came to a boil when BJP MLA Atanasio Monserrate and two other MLAs alleged recruitment scams by PWD Minister Deepak Pauskar and Health Minister Vishwajeet Rane. Pauskar was denied a ticket, but Rane and all three accusers have been fielded by BJP.

26. @PandurangGoa, Editor of the newspaper Goanvarta tells me that a ‘hurt cadre’ could be an invisible force, and probably a deciding factor in this election.

Another #GoaElection2022 thread soon.

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