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Feb 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
'Putin and Macron could not conclude a deal to de-escalate the situation around Ukraine' tass.ru/politika/13646…
'Peskov denied the publication of the Financial Times newspaper about a deal to reduce tensions around Ukraine, which was allegedly concluded by the leaders of Russia and France, Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron.'
'"Financial Times, of course, wrote wrong, basically wrong," a Kremlin spokesman told reporters on Tuesday. "In the current situation, Moscow and Paris could not conclude any deals, it is simply impossible," Peskov said.'
"France is also a member of NATO, where France does not have leadership, leadership belongs to a completely different country in this bloc. And what kind of deals can we talk about here?" - "the newspaper simply wrote incorrectly."

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More from @Andy_Scollick

Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 10
No one's asked me yet why or how the Russians would 'interfere' with Mount Gabriel civil installation or whether they even could. Well.. see below
For starters, the US and other militaries do use civilian aircraft charter flights for transatlantic mobility, such as Omni Air International oai.aero/services-chart…
Eurocontrol cooperates with NATO regarding Rapid Air Mobility eurocontrol.int/news/supportin…
Read 4 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 10
So, @MichealMartinTD @LeoVaradkar @EamonRyan and @simoncoveney have approximately 9-10 days left to prepare #Ireland🇮🇪 for the economic, financial, social, political and psychological impacts of a 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war that could escalate into a war that threatens all of Europe. 🧵 1/
Where is the Government of Ireland's strategy for managing public safety and civil defence? Where are the planning and preparedness measures for possible incidents involving, for example, risk to Irish-registered aircraft crossing eastern Europe? 2/
Or Irish citizens caught in the conflict zone or in Russia during wartime? Or extra naval protection for ferries crossing the Irish and Celtic Seas? Is the Government going to protect Ukrainian assets in Ireland from Russian 'hybrid' attacks (and vice versa)? 3/
Read 14 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 10
Russia is not implementing its part of the #MinskAgreements, the security part, by maintaining a ceasefire, withdrawing its Occupation troops from the Donbas, allowing its militias to be disarmed peacefully and returning the border to Ukrainian control, with full OSCE access. 1/ Image
At the same time, Russia insists that Ukraine is failing to implement its part of the agreements, the political part, by granting the Russian-occupied territories elections and political autonomy. Meanwhile, Russia issues passports, creating Donbas citizens of Russia. 2/
Russia has in effect co-opted Macron and Scholz in its efforts to force Ukraine to grant political 'autonomy' to a region occupied by Russian troops and under Moscow's control via puppet administrations. Any elections will inevitably be used to justify annexation by Russia. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 8
So, the current Western analytical wind is blowing in a "Russia is going to keep a lower level of build up in place but without attacking" direction. "Putin will off-ramp in slow motion thus avoiding a humiliating climbdown. He will maintain threat of war to extract concessions."
However, apart from obvious financial costs and difficulties of sustaining a large force far from garrisons, there's a risk of stalemate. The West sees Russia's plan and has no incentive to grant concessions. Result: the status quo (frozen conflict in Ukraine in return for gas).
Furthermore, once bitten, twice shy. NATO allies have been found wanting: first in 2014, then this winter. NATO is moving to strengthen its eastern flank and will - incrementally - continue to do so in coming years in order not to be caught out by a Russian mobilisation again.
Read 4 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 8
When people talk about the economic, social and human costs to Russia arising from an expansion of its war against Ukraine, they forget: Moscow will have factored in the gains from 'acquiring' an occupied labour force and industry. A crucial oversight in some expert calculi. Image
E.g., if Russia loses RUB 1,800 billion (€21 billion) per annum from sanctions impact (based on loss of gas revenue to Europe), how much does it gain from subsuming, say, one-third of Ukraine's economy? €45 bn pa is too high, due to sanctions. Maybe €15-25 bn pa? Breakeven.
What would be the social cost to Russia? This would be linked to the economic 'hiccup' as Russia adapted its economy (toward the East) and the human cost in terms of lives and permanent disability. Angry mothers of dead soldiers: did that tip Putin off his chair after Chechnya?
Read 4 tweets
Andy Scollick Profile picture
Feb 5
Pseudo-parliament and internment camps
Putin's coup plan for Ukraine
by @JulianRoepcke

Original (German) bild.de/bild-plus/poli…
Google translation (English) www-bild-de.translate.goog/politik/auslan…

Stage 1 - Surrender of the cities

1/
Subsequently, the Russian intelligence services would "seize strategic facilities, eliminate threats, recruit those willing to cooperate and establish a new leadership in the conquered cities". 2/
According to the report available to BILD, this practice would be used in key cities in the country until all of Ukraine's metropolises "peacefully" came under Russian control. 3/
Read 10 tweets

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