So, @MichealMartinTD@LeoVaradkar@EamonRyan and @SimonCoveney have approximately 9-10 days left to prepare #Ireland🇮🇪 for the economic, financial, social, political and psychological impacts of a 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war that could escalate into a war that threatens all of Europe. 🧵 1/
Where is the Government of Ireland's strategy for managing public safety and civil defence? Where are the planning and preparedness measures for possible incidents involving, for example, risk to Irish-registered aircraft crossing eastern Europe? 2/
Or Irish citizens caught in the conflict zone or in Russia during wartime? Or extra naval protection for ferries crossing the Irish and Celtic Seas? Is the Government going to protect Ukrainian assets in Ireland from Russian 'hybrid' attacks (and vice versa)? 3/
Have the @DefenceForces@Naval_Service and @IrishAirCorps prepared to either mine Cork Harbour and Berehaven Habour to deny them to belligerents or, conversely, demine them? Are the Mount Gabriel Eurocontrol (European air traffic control system) civil radar domes protected? 4/
What contingencies and redundancies (backups) have been planned and prepared for possible Russian sabotage of transatlantic subsea communications cables in Ireland's exclusive economic zone, and shore stations? How will Ireland be affacted? 5/
Has the Government of Ireland prepared a plan to receive possibly tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees? What accommodation? Where? What humanitarian aid will we send Ukraine and its neighbouring EU countries, and how? 6/
How would Ireland's diminished @DefenceForces cope with a low probability but nevertheless possible operation by the Russian military in or on sovereign Irish territory? What are the Rules of Engagement? (They need prior political Cabinet-level approval.) 7/
How does the Government intend to stem any sudden impulse to panic buy petrol, diesel, food and medicines? What lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic are being applied to preparedness for potential fallout from war in Europe? 8/
What is the status of Ireland’s strategic oil reserves? Is the National Oil Reserves Agency onboard with planning? What are the levels of NORA's emergency oil stocks? (There are figures for 2021, but are current levels enough to sustain Ireland if supplies are limited by war? 9/
Are the population of Ireland being informed by Government of strategies and plans for a national emergency? Or is the Government planning on informing people when it's too late and the economic, social and psychological impacts are already being felt? 10/
While no one expects Irish people to have to mount a "total defence" against a low probability Russian invasion of Ireland, people still need to be informed so that they can prepare themselves, and their children, for the potential horrors of war on the Continent. 11/
In 2018, the Government of Sweden distributed a comprehensive 'be prepared for war' public information leaflet to all 4.8 million households in the country. Why hasn't this happened in Ireland? There is still time. 12/
It's not rocket science 🚀 Ireland has defence planners 🪖 But more than that, Ireland has disaster management and other professionals whose job it is to prepare for and respond to disasters, whether they be natural 🌡️🌊🌨️ or human-made ⚔️💥 So where is the public strategy? 13/
Hopefully diplomacy will win out. But 🇷🇺 could attack 🇺🇦 in a new phase of war in just 9-10 days time. That gives the 🇮🇪 Government very LITTLE time to put together plans and inform the public through a coherent public strategy. There WILL be social and economic impacts. End/
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For starters, the US and other militaries do use civilian aircraft charter flights for transatlantic mobility, such as Omni Air International oai.aero/services-chart…
Russia is not implementing its part of the #MinskAgreements, the security part, by maintaining a ceasefire, withdrawing its Occupation troops from the Donbas, allowing its militias to be disarmed peacefully and returning the border to Ukrainian control, with full OSCE access. 1/
At the same time, Russia insists that Ukraine is failing to implement its part of the agreements, the political part, by granting the Russian-occupied territories elections and political autonomy. Meanwhile, Russia issues passports, creating Donbas citizens of Russia. 2/
Russia has in effect co-opted Macron and Scholz in its efforts to force Ukraine to grant political 'autonomy' to a region occupied by Russian troops and under Moscow's control via puppet administrations. Any elections will inevitably be used to justify annexation by Russia. 3/
So, the current Western analytical wind is blowing in a "Russia is going to keep a lower level of build up in place but without attacking" direction. "Putin will off-ramp in slow motion thus avoiding a humiliating climbdown. He will maintain threat of war to extract concessions."
However, apart from obvious financial costs and difficulties of sustaining a large force far from garrisons, there's a risk of stalemate. The West sees Russia's plan and has no incentive to grant concessions. Result: the status quo (frozen conflict in Ukraine in return for gas).
Furthermore, once bitten, twice shy. NATO allies have been found wanting: first in 2014, then this winter. NATO is moving to strengthen its eastern flank and will - incrementally - continue to do so in coming years in order not to be caught out by a Russian mobilisation again.
'Putin and Macron could not conclude a deal to de-escalate the situation around Ukraine' tass.ru/politika/13646…
'Peskov denied the publication of the Financial Times newspaper about a deal to reduce tensions around Ukraine, which was allegedly concluded by the leaders of Russia and France, Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron.'
'"Financial Times, of course, wrote wrong, basically wrong," a Kremlin spokesman told reporters on Tuesday. "In the current situation, Moscow and Paris could not conclude any deals, it is simply impossible," Peskov said.'
When people talk about the economic, social and human costs to Russia arising from an expansion of its war against Ukraine, they forget: Moscow will have factored in the gains from 'acquiring' an occupied labour force and industry. A crucial oversight in some expert calculi.
E.g., if Russia loses RUB 1,800 billion (€21 billion) per annum from sanctions impact (based on loss of gas revenue to Europe), how much does it gain from subsuming, say, one-third of Ukraine's economy? €45 bn pa is too high, due to sanctions. Maybe €15-25 bn pa? Breakeven.
What would be the social cost to Russia? This would be linked to the economic 'hiccup' as Russia adapted its economy (toward the East) and the human cost in terms of lives and permanent disability. Angry mothers of dead soldiers: did that tip Putin off his chair after Chechnya?
Subsequently, the Russian intelligence services would "seize strategic facilities, eliminate threats, recruit those willing to cooperate and establish a new leadership in the conquered cities". 2/
According to the report available to BILD, this practice would be used in key cities in the country until all of Ukraine's metropolises "peacefully" came under Russian control. 3/