Tim Latimer Profile picture
Feb 8 6 tweets 2 min read
1/I get asked a lot why geothermal seems to suddenly be getting a lot of attention. There’s a market/policy reason and a tech reason. A short THREAD.
2/Market/policy: despite the rhetoric, up until 3 years ago few people actually took deep decarbonization seriously. Low level targets were all people thought could be achieved. 100% clean electricity standards and 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy commitments have expanded the ambition.
3/This expanded ambition is important because study after study shows that if you want a true carbon free grid, instead of just 60-80%, you need to have a clean firm power resource like geothermal as a portion of the grid mix.
4/Tech: drilling tech is just dramatically better than it was a decade ago, driven largely by major advancements in the O&G industry. Just look at this productivity measure from EIA for gas drilling. Up over 10X in 10 years.
5/More people are realizing that though this tech has clear crossover to geothermal (after all we drill too, similar wells), costs models for geothermal haven’t changed. The commonly cited public cost models use data over a decade old, as if drilling tech has been stagnant.
6/So the 2020s finds us at an interesting point where we finally have a policy and market pull from efforts on deep decarbonization, right when drilling tech has dramatically improved. That’s why you are hearing about it more. This will be the Geothermal Decade. END

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More from @TimMLatimer

Sep 19, 2021
1/I recently read American Prometheus, about Robert Oppenheimer, to get some insight into rapid, large scale science innovation. Oppenheimer famously led the Manhattan Project that led to the atomic bomb. A lot of interesting lessons, so, a THREAD.
2/The first reflection I had, which is counterintuitive and really wasn’t what I expected: the Manhattan Project was actually much smaller scale than I expected. What made it so successful wasn’t some outlandish budget, at least in modern terms.
3/Let me explain. The Manhattan Project spent ~$2B, or ~$20B ($4B/yr) in today’s dollars. An enormous amount, to be sure, but comparatively, smaller than the DOE budget today ($46B/yr) or even individual company R&D like Amazon (42B/yr). sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/RL346…
Read 22 tweets
Jun 4, 2021
1/Nearly everything we take for granted in the modern world is the result of government funded research and public-private partnerships. @apoorv_bh89 recently laid down this challenge. Challenge accepted.

How the McRib came from gov research, a THREAD:
2/The weird but true story of the government-backed McRib goes back, way back, to the days of WWII. Supplying soldiers in combat with healthy and tasty food to keep them going in trying conditions has been a challenge for millennia.
3/WWII meant delivering a lot of things, including food, on a size and scale that had never been done before. The military partnered with the private sector to provide better and better options for combat meals. Famously, this produced the M&M. militarytimes.com/off-duty/2016/…
Read 13 tweets
Mar 2, 2021
1/Alright this is an experiment, probably my most obscure thread to date, but I want to talk about one of the step-change tech breakthroughs being applied to geothermal that is transforming the sector: the polycrystalline diamond cutter (PDC) drill bit. THREAD:
2/First, a little overview of the drilling process, which is similar whether you are targeting oil, gas, geothermal, minerals, water, etc. It mostly involves breaking rock down with a drill bit and removing the pieces by circulating them up from the bottom.
3/A predominant early method of drilling basically involved dropping something hard into the ground over and over again to make a hole, called “percussion drilling”. You can see this technique in action many times in There Will Be Blood.
Read 19 tweets
Feb 23, 2021
1/Ok so now that we are all interested in electricity reliability, really big ruling from the California PUC today. Recognizes a 7000MW (!!) shortfall by 2025 and calls for new resources, including 1000MW each of new geothermal and long duration storage. docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/…
2/What’s going on? 2020 rotating outages exposed major vulnerabilities in California and in the next few years, Diablo Canyon nuclear and a lot of once-through cooling (OTC) natural gas is set to retire. The problem is just going to get worse.
3/The Administrative Law Judge (ALJ) ruling looked at revised peak load requirements, shutdowns of nuclear and gas capacity, and compared it to existing planned procurement in the state. It’s not pretty. Mid case below:
Read 10 tweets
Oct 30, 2020
Regular reminder that pretty much everything defining the modern energy sector--wind, solar, shale O&G, li-ion batteries, EVs--has its roots in a brief period in the 70s when we actually spent $$$ on R&D. We can and should do it again. Chart from @ITIFdc.
Wind:

"In the United States, in contrast to Denmark, the oil crisis of 1973/4 resulted in a sudden government intervention into wind energy which, paradoxically, was to prove a crucial factor in the growth of Danish firms."
hbs.edu/faculty/Public…
Wind:

"Between 1973 and 1988, $380 million of federal was spent on wind turbine development. Following the pattern of AECs funding of civilian nuclear power , the government fully funded large turbines by leading firms, including Boeing, General Electric and Westinghouse."
Read 8 tweets
Oct 26, 2020
1/Alright, now that everyone is paying attention to geothermal, time to discuss one of the more exciting developments that is driving geothermal growth to become a mainstream resource: the emergence of modern, emission free, low temperature binary cycle geothermal plants. THREAD
2/Geothermal power for a long, long time, since at least 1904 when the Larderello steam field produced 10 kW in Tuscany. But for nearly the first 100 years, geothermal was limited to places like Larderello, extremely high temperature reservoirs.
power-technology.com/features/oldes…
3/This is because geothermal power used dry steam of flash technology, and to provide power, the fluid had to have enough steam to directly power a turbine. By contrast, binary cycle plants heat a different working fluid for the power conversion process. (from DOE GeoVision)
Read 16 tweets

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