Let's discuss a path forward for masks in schools

I've been a strong proponent of masking in schools

So as we enter a new phase

Do we need to keep masking for the foreseeable future

I don't think so

Should we ban masks in schools today?

No

Let's find a middle path

Thread
First, let's talk evidence

Do masks work to reduce transmission?

Absolutely

What about in kids?

The evidence is less strong but clearly, the weight of evidence says that masking also works in kids

Are there harms?

Not much evidence either way but there could be

2/n
So given the (imperfect) evidence

Masking in schools was important while two things were true:

There were no vaccines for kids

Large surge of infections in the community

Now, as we enter a new phase

Every school-age kid can be vaccinated

And infections are getting low

3/n
In this context, I see a few things

First, smart to wait a few more weeks to implement any decision

How long? Depends on where you are

In Massachusetts, infections and hospitalizations are down

And will be more so by March

In some other places, not so much

4/n
So on timing, waiting until March or in some places, April seems more reasonable

Next, I think this should be a local decision

Some places have high vaccination rates for kids

In that context, lifting mask mandates even safer

In places with low vaccinations, its harder

5/n
The challenge of tying unmasking policy to vaccination rates is that vaccination rates in kids have plateaued

This is not about waiting a few more weeks until more kids are vaccinated

Might be many months or years

And, thankfully, we haven't seen a lot of spread in schools
So lifting statewide mask mandates and letting local districts decide what is best is a good approach now

Some communities with low vaccination rates, more vulnerable populations may choose to leave masks on for a bit longer

That makes a lot of sense to me

7/9
Others with higher vax rates may choose to lift masking in the context of dropping infection rates

Also reasonable

And remember that masking isn't the only mitigation tool we have

We can continue using tests, improving ventilation/filtration and encouraging vaccinations

8/9
The bottom line is that kids and masking in schools has been a an emotional flashpoint

I get why

Let's be patient and let communities come to a decision that is right for them

For some, it might mean masks off in 2 weeks. Others? two months

One more thing
Over next year or so, I can imagine masks used intermittently as needed

In a COVID surge next winter, a mayor might call for masking for a month to reduce spread

Masks on as surges start, off during quiet times

That's how many countries do it

And that's a good approach

End

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More from @ashishkjha

Feb 6
Quick update on the state of the pandemic in the US

Nationally,

Infections are down 60%

Hospitalizations down about 30%

Deaths have largely plateaued at a very high 2500+ per day

Beneath the headlines, we see dropping infections in every part of the country
Here are the four largest states

Geographically, politically diverse with very different strategies and mitigation policies

Infections are down 50-80% across these states

And hospitalizations have turned the corner in each of these states

Deaths are starting to follow
In fact, based on analysis from @CovidActNow

Infections are falling in 47 states. And quickly

And in 3 states, they have plateaued

That's good

So what happens next?

Several things
Read 8 tweets
Feb 1
I've been saying for weeks that as cases recede

We can soon relax public health restrictions

I think of this like the weather

When it is bucketing rain

Umbrella, rain coat, boots, are all essential

When the storm turns into a drizzle, those become less critical

Thread
A big spike (like Omicron surge) is like a major storm

If you don't want to get wet, you need to stay home

But if you venture out

Bring a big umbrella (vaccines)
Wear a raincoat (good masks)
And rainboots (avoid crowded indoor spaces)

You get the idea

2/n
Right now, the storm is starting to ebb

Infections are falling, hospitalizations down

But with infections still high

Indoor mask mandates make sense. As do indoor capacity limits

Many states still have them (though bars are open in every city in America, as far as I know)

3/
Read 9 tweets
Jan 30
You all know the data demonstrating dramatically higher hospitalization rates for unvaccinated folks

But one key point often not discussed?

Around 60%-70% of unvaccinated adults have already been previously infected

Which tells us a lot about infection-induced immunity

Thread
We see large gaps in hospitalizations between vaccinated and unvaccinated

But unvaccinated are not immunologically naïve

At this point, probably 2/3 have been previously infected

And yet, we still see 50X differences in hospitalizations between vaccinated and unvaccinated

2/7
One possibility is that hospitalizations are happening in the dwindling group of unvaccinated who haven't been previously infected

Means true benefit of the vaccines is even higher (by a lot)

But much more likely, it means infection-induced immunity is not holding up

3/8
Read 10 tweets
Jan 25
We're in a transition moment in this pandemic

We're coming off highs of the worst surge of infections we've ever had

Cases are high but starting to fall in much of the nation

This moment raises lots of questions

With one big one: What happens next?

Thread
As Yogi Berra once said,

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future

So we should be circumspect about how much we can predict with certainty

But some things seem pretty reasonable to assume

First, infections are likely to decline in upcoming weeks

2/n
Here's wastewater data from Massachusetts

Infections are falling fast. Expect to get to pre-Omicron surge levels within a week or two

The rest of the nation will soon follow

And by Mid-February, infections should be relatively low across much of the nation

Why low?

3/n
Read 14 tweets
Jan 20
Getting asked when will Omicron peak in the US?

My best guess?

I think we are there

We are seeing a little bumpiness in the data because of MLK day holiday

But evidence says as a nation, we have likely peaked

Big states: CA, FL, and NY have peaked. May be even Texas

Thread
Beyond peak, there are two surprises worth discussing

First, I said few days ago that I expected hospitalizations to rise a while longer

Turns out, not so much

Hospitalizations have flattened nationally and are declining in places like NY

Why? What did I get wrong?

2/4
The reason my guess on hospitalizations may have been too pessimistic?

In previous surges, cases caused hospitalizations and folks stayed in hospital for a while

With Omicron, fewer hospitalizations

And Omicron hospitalizations are, on average, much shorter

That's good!

3/6
Read 7 tweets
Jan 16
Quick update on the pandemic in US

We're averaging about 800K identified cases daily

Likely missing 75% - 80% of infections

If you do the math

At least 1 in 100 Americans getting infected every day

Everyone wants to know: when do we peak?

Here's the national picture

Thread
The national picture shows a slowing of the surge

But we're still rising

But if we dig a bit deeper, a few things emerge

First, let's start with the big 4

CA, TX, FL, NY

Why? Lots of people live there, geographically and politically diverse

What do we see?

a few things
There is no doubt NY has peaked, down a lot

FL looks like it has peaked, down some

California may be plateauing, likely

Texas is hard to tell, likely still rising, not sure

And that is the 2nd big point:

There is no single national experience

Local conditions vary, widely
Read 8 tweets

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