Thread by @althecat

#NZ #ExtremeWeather Update thread:

The latest JTWC update has Cyclone Dovi strengthening to 96 knots of sustained winds, putting it on the threshold of Category 3 Hurricane Strength.

While #CycloneDOVI is very unlikely to maintain anything close to this all the way to NZ, this is not good news for the Nth Island in rain/flooding terms.

[Image: 24 hour satellite animation of #Dovi featuring New Caledonian radar data showing an intense well formed eyewall.]

Outflow of moisture - an atmospheric river - generated by #CycloneDovi is already delivering intense rains in NZ in a band which is steadily moving northwards.

A strengthening #Dovi will increase the amount of moisture in this river.

Forecasting cyclone intensity is something of an art and the JTWC tends to be conservative in its projections. So the forecast of intensification to close to Cat 3 Hurricane intensity is a little alarming.

We can find out more looking at intensity modelling, which as you can see here is somewhat experimental >> cyclocane.com/dovi-spaghetti…

The other method of determining the strengthening or weakening path of cyclones is expert observation of the satellite presentation of the storm which is also what the JTWC peeps do. This account is worth following for a 2nd opinion.

https://twitter.com/MhcTracking/status/1491789766999765007?s=20&t=AIWXPYlCkGNnIGEzAxxHmg

From a model perspective there is now a very high level of simulation model agreement on the path and velocity of this cyclone which is expected to speed up significantly over the next 24 hours and cross NZ fairly quickly.

Latest model simulations are fairly consistent, the center of Cyclone #Dovi is expected to approach the West Coast on Sunday evening and the humid air associated with the cyclone should clear NZ altogether by Monday afternoon.

Finally, at present the GFS and ECMWF models are very much in alignment on where they think the rain is likely to accumulate, and how much is expected.

Taranaki currently looks like it is in the eye of the storm.