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Feb 10 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Now on @NewsHour: @nickschifrin talks to @KofmanMichael about Russian buildup on the Ukrainian border. How close are they to war?
@KofmanMichael: we are in the final stages of a significant buildup
Also, tune in now to see @KofmanMichael's truly magnificent portrait of Captain Jean-Luc Picard in period dress
@KofmanMichael: we're likely to see "fairly large" Russian incursion both from the Crimean peninsula in the south, and also from the east
@KofmanMichael: Russia does appear to be in an increasingly "go, or don't go" posture. Putin decision likely to come in the coming weeks, not months. There's a possibility for backdoor diplomacy, but pessimistic.

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More from @AliRogin

Ali Rogin Profile picture
Feb 11
Here’s a little 🧵on what today’s #Afghanistan announcement today really means, based on a call that senior administration officials (SAOs) held with reporters this morning.
First, this announcement doesn’t actually guarantee that any money goes anywhere. It leaves it up to New York courts to decide (Tbh, I’m not yet sure which courts/judges. Is it all of them that are hearing 9/11 cases?)
The US is saying it has to defer to the courts because some of the plaintiffs in 9/11 cases were awarded a “writ of attachment” to all $7 billion, which means no one can withdraw that money, not the government of Afghanistan, nor the Biden administration.
Read 14 tweets
Ali Rogin Profile picture
Jan 17
I've spent the last few hours talking to experts in volcanos and tsunamis for #tongatsunami coverage - here are some humble conclusions. First, and most scarily, we know very little about volcanic tsunamis. Early warning systems aren't focused on them but rather earthquake ones.
Second, and of course most importantly, is that we don't yet know the full extent of how much damage has been done to Tonga itself. Experts who have viewed satellite imagery say it looks like it's been badly hit by both the tsunami and the ash fall. Praying for Tonga.
Third, the eruption itself wasn't that big. It wasn't carrying that much ash, that you might associate with a plume that big. Much of the plume was actually water vapor, which raises questions about the interaction of magma and ocean water. Which again, we know very little about.
Read 7 tweets
Ali Rogin Profile picture
Sep 14, 2021
Q from @MittRomney: "has the Taliban abandoned their sympathy for al Qaeda, Haqqani network - or has that relationship been severed?"

@SecBlinken: the relationship has not been severed and it’s a very open question as to whether their views and the relationship has changed...
... in any kind of definitive way. I think it’s fair to say two things: one, whatever the Taliban’s views on al Qaeda, they do know that the last time they harbored al-Qaeda and engaged in an outwardly-directed attack on our homeland, certain things followed...
... which i believe they would have an interest in not seeing repeated. (didn't we just declare that we left because we were no longer interested in committing to being able to do those "certain things?")
Read 9 tweets
Ali Rogin Profile picture
Sep 13, 2021
The @HouseForeign hearing on Afghanistan, featuring @SecBlinken, is getting under way a few minutes late. Blinken joining virtually. I'll be trying to tweet notable moments/statements periodically, in this thread.
.@RepGregoryMeeks says that in the discourse over the Afghanistan withdrawal, "we are seeing domestic politics injected into foreign policy." But then issues a full-throated endorsement of the withdrawal, rather than laying out what issues the hearing seeks to examine.
@RepGregoryMeeks Blinken: "The military placed on standby by President Biden was able to secure the airport and begin evacuation." We've all seen the images of the airport. "Secure" is not one of the first words that come to mind - even if they were able to maintain operational control.
Read 12 tweets
Ali Rogin Profile picture
Oct 29, 2020
National Counterintelligence and Security Center director Bill Evanina tells @nickschifrin that recent Russian + Iranian cyberattacks on U.S. critical infrastructure may have only accessed voter information accidentally, but of course, it still has the same end result: discord.
Evanina says his concern is not that foreign actors will be able to manipulate votes. But "the concern we have is a potential ransomware attack where systems are shut down and we're unable to process votes in a timely fashion."
Evanina distances himself from DNI Ratcliffe's statement that Iran's recent misinformation campaigns were designed to hurt President Trump: "I can only comment to the actual effects and impact of last week with respect to what happened with Iran's intentions...
Read 6 tweets
Ali Rogin Profile picture
Oct 27, 2020
New head of the US Agency for Global Media (which heads VOA, RFE/RL and others) removes the editorial protection which one former VOA director calls "the one thing that makes VOA distinct from broadcasters of repressive regimes." npr.org/2020/10/27/928…
At Pack's confirmation in September '19, @SenatorMenendez specifically asked how he would protect the firewall between VOA journalists and its government board. Pack: "Well, I'm not sure about all the journalistic practices and techniques inside the agency now to do that...
... but I would look at those and try to strengthen them. I guess it comes down to that we need to say no when you get a call from some--a political person telling journalists what to do."
Read 4 tweets

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