Here’s a little 🧵on what today’s #Afghanistan announcement today really means, based on a call that senior administration officials (SAOs) held with reporters this morning.
First, this announcement doesn’t actually guarantee that any money goes anywhere. It leaves it up to New York courts to decide (Tbh, I’m not yet sure which courts/judges. Is it all of them that are hearing 9/11 cases?)
The US is saying it has to defer to the courts because some of the plaintiffs in 9/11 cases were awarded a “writ of attachment” to all $7 billion, which means no one can withdraw that money, not the government of Afghanistan, nor the Biden administration.
BUT what the administration CAN do, is move the money from various US financial institutions into the New York Federal Reserve. They are doing so by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers (IEEPA) Act, which is a statue used to freeze assets.
From there, it’s really up to the judges - again, I think, the ones dealing with the 9/11 cases. The administration says its preference is for half of the money (about $3.5 billion) to be available to be awarded to 9/11 families.
They are asking the judge to put the other half in a third party trust fund, which hasn’t actually been set up yet. “We’re still working through the modalities and government structure” for that trust fund, the SAOs said.
“This is one step forward in a process,” a SAO said. “No funds are going to be transferred until the court makes a ruling.”
In terms of timing, the SAOs say “it’s going to be at least a number of months before we can move any of this money.” There are a lot of interim steps: Assuming the court rules in favor of transferring $3.5 billion to a trust fund for the Afghan people, Treasury still needs to..
... issue a license to authorize that transfer. The Federal Reserve has to conduct its due diligence of that third party, which again, still hasn’t been established yet.
The SAO’s were asked, basically, are they using the court case as a cop out, a way to shirk responsibility for the funds and put the onus elsewhere? “We in no way think of ourselves as using the court case as a shield,” a SAO said. (cont)
“The idea that we could just ignore the litigation in NY is just flatly wrong. We have to deal with it.”
There are many questions still unanswered. One of the biggest is, where does this leave the administration in terms of legally recognizing the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan? The plaintiffs were trying to sue the Taliban, but there was no way to collect.
But now, the US is saying that the $7 billion, which belongs to the government of Afghanistan – and comprised largely of foreign aid – is fair game, because the Taliban is in control. But the US doesn’t recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.
It’s a sticky legal question that it seems, by announcing this major, but interim step, the US can sidestep for another day. //
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I've spent the last few hours talking to experts in volcanos and tsunamis for #tongatsunami coverage - here are some humble conclusions. First, and most scarily, we know very little about volcanic tsunamis. Early warning systems aren't focused on them but rather earthquake ones.
Second, and of course most importantly, is that we don't yet know the full extent of how much damage has been done to Tonga itself. Experts who have viewed satellite imagery say it looks like it's been badly hit by both the tsunami and the ash fall. Praying for Tonga.
Third, the eruption itself wasn't that big. It wasn't carrying that much ash, that you might associate with a plume that big. Much of the plume was actually water vapor, which raises questions about the interaction of magma and ocean water. Which again, we know very little about.
Q from @MittRomney: "has the Taliban abandoned their sympathy for al Qaeda, Haqqani network - or has that relationship been severed?"
@SecBlinken: the relationship has not been severed and it’s a very open question as to whether their views and the relationship has changed...
... in any kind of definitive way. I think it’s fair to say two things: one, whatever the Taliban’s views on al Qaeda, they do know that the last time they harbored al-Qaeda and engaged in an outwardly-directed attack on our homeland, certain things followed...
... which i believe they would have an interest in not seeing repeated. (didn't we just declare that we left because we were no longer interested in committing to being able to do those "certain things?")
The @HouseForeign hearing on Afghanistan, featuring @SecBlinken, is getting under way a few minutes late. Blinken joining virtually. I'll be trying to tweet notable moments/statements periodically, in this thread.
.@RepGregoryMeeks says that in the discourse over the Afghanistan withdrawal, "we are seeing domestic politics injected into foreign policy." But then issues a full-throated endorsement of the withdrawal, rather than laying out what issues the hearing seeks to examine.
@RepGregoryMeeks Blinken: "The military placed on standby by President Biden was able to secure the airport and begin evacuation." We've all seen the images of the airport. "Secure" is not one of the first words that come to mind - even if they were able to maintain operational control.
National Counterintelligence and Security Center director Bill Evanina tells @nickschifrin that recent Russian + Iranian cyberattacks on U.S. critical infrastructure may have only accessed voter information accidentally, but of course, it still has the same end result: discord.
Evanina says his concern is not that foreign actors will be able to manipulate votes. But "the concern we have is a potential ransomware attack where systems are shut down and we're unable to process votes in a timely fashion."
Evanina distances himself from DNI Ratcliffe's statement that Iran's recent misinformation campaigns were designed to hurt President Trump: "I can only comment to the actual effects and impact of last week with respect to what happened with Iran's intentions...
New head of the US Agency for Global Media (which heads VOA, RFE/RL and others) removes the editorial protection which one former VOA director calls "the one thing that makes VOA distinct from broadcasters of repressive regimes." npr.org/2020/10/27/928…
At Pack's confirmation in September '19, @SenatorMenendez specifically asked how he would protect the firewall between VOA journalists and its government board. Pack: "Well, I'm not sure about all the journalistic practices and techniques inside the agency now to do that...
... but I would look at those and try to strengthen them. I guess it comes down to that we need to say no when you get a call from some--a political person telling journalists what to do."