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Feb 11 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
From Ukraine to Belarus, the Baltics to the South Caucasus, Moldova to Kazakhstan, Russia's political and soft-power influence over its own "near abroad" is in long-term decline. So it is turning to the only tool it has left: military force.

newstatesman.com/international-…
Various factors at play here:

- long-term post-Soviet cultural shifts
- rise of other influences (West, Turkey, China)
- weakening grip of pro-Moscow autocrats
- Kremlin's own repellent foreign policies

newstatesman.com/international-…
Survey the picture. Baltics hosting NATO troops since 2017, Ukraine's drastic turn away from Russia since 2014, Moldova on pro-EU course, Armenia newly suspicious, Russian forces having to shield Kremlin-friendly regimes in Belarus and Kazakhstan from their own people...
tl;dr the Kremlin's paranoid complaint about encirclement is only half wrong. It *is* increasingly surrounded by suspicious and/or hostile peoples. However the blame lies not with NATO but with its own threatening behaviour & unattractive political model.

newstatesman.com/international-…

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More from @JeremyCliffe

Jeremy Cliffe Profile picture
Jan 27
As ever-more Russian forces arrive on the border, Ukrainians are preparing for the worst. But the mood is impressively calm, measured and stoical.

My dispatch from Kyiv 🇺🇦:

newstatesman.com/international-…
Most Ukrainian officials, politicians and civil society figures I speak to consider a full-scale Russian invasion extremely unlikely and imminent action of any sort far from certain. The departure of some US and UK embassy staff is deemed excessive and an unhelpful signal.
Explanations for this sanguine view: 1) 🇺🇦 has been under 🇷🇺 assault *already* since 2014, 2) its government wants to avoid panic, 3) its establishment (for the most part) does not believe Putin mad enough to attempt the sort of maximalist attack some in Western capitals fear.
Read 11 tweets
Jeremy Cliffe Profile picture
Nov 24, 2021
Germany's 🔴🟢🟡 coalition agreement, some key points: Greens get foreign ministry & new economy-climate mega ministry, FDP get finance ministry. Deal includes coal exit "ideally" by 2030, €12 min wage, 400k new homes/year, expanded state-based investments in green, digital etc.
Liberalising social policies are an area of broad common ground between the three parties, and it shows. Coalition deal includes cannabis legalisation, allowing multiple-citizenship, faster naturalisation, voting age lowered to 16, strengthened reproductive & LGBT+ rights.
The coalition deal title "Dare more progress" is a clear echo of Willy Brandt's "Dare more democracy"
Read 10 tweets
Jeremy Cliffe Profile picture
Sep 19, 2021
With a week to go until the 🇩🇪 election, the 3rd & final TV debate is about to start. Time is running out for CDU/CSU candidate Armin Laschet to regain the lead.

More on his woes and the "Merkel factor" in our latest @NewStatesman Germany Elects podcast:

newstatesman.com/podcasts/world…
The snapshot from our @NewStatesman poll tracker: the SPD lead under Olaf Scholz has stabilised at just under 26%, CDU/CSU under Armin Laschet just over 21% and Greens under Annalena Baerbock at just under 16%.

newstatesman.com/politics/2021/…
Here's what that would mean for Bundestag seat-shares: six politically and arithmetically viable coalitions (albeit some more politically viable than others).

newstatesman.com/politics/2021/…
Read 37 tweets
Jeremy Cliffe Profile picture
Sep 19, 2021
There’s inconsistency on both sides in the #AUKUS row. Anglos complain France not reliable / committed in Indo-Pacific yet begrudge its offense at being sidelined in that very arena; French preach European strategic autonomy yet are appalled when Anglos take them at their word.
Better to see AUKUS as the poorly handled realisation of new basic realities. UK and Aus both have strong impetus (Brexit & geography respectively) to move in lockstep with US on China policy; France & EU have grounds to seek a more nuanced form of alignment with US positions.
Recognising those differences, and the inevitable pluralism of any post-hegemonic Western alliance (“Westishness” as I’ve called this in @NewStatesman), would be a good first step to managing them more constructively in future and thus moving on from the AUKUS row.
Read 4 tweets
Jeremy Cliffe Profile picture
Sep 12, 2021
The 2nd 🇩🇪 TV debate (of 3) is about to start. Backdrop: SPD lead under Scholz has stabilised; CDU/CSU fightback under Laschet is running out of time; Greens under Baerbock haven't broken through.

Much more on the SPD surge on our Germany Elects podcast:
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/wha…
Opening question begins with coalition options. Laschet barrels in with his favourite talking point (that Scholz would bring the socialist Left party into power). Baerbock gives nuanced reply on similarities (social justice policies) and differences (foreign policy) with Left.
Scholz gives his stock answer - almost word-for-word his reply in debate 1. Doesn't rule out a deal with Left but stresses importance of foreign and defence policy.

As before: Scholz would prefer not to govern with Left but wants to maximise leverage in coalition talks.
Read 30 tweets
Jeremy Cliffe Profile picture
Aug 29, 2021
The 1st of 3 TV debates between Olaf Scholz (SPD), Armin Laschet (CDU/CSU) & Annalena Baerbock (Green) is about to begin.

Election is in exactly four weeks (26 September). Background, discussion & more on our @NewStatesman podcast series Germany Elects:

newstatesman.com/podcasts/2021/…
Election is very open, with the top three parties vying for first place. Some 5 different coalitions after election are currently arithmetically conceivable. Momentum is with SPD, so onus tonight is on Laschet and Baerbock to change the narrative.
Warm-up question. Each is invited to criticise the others, but all largely duck the question (bar an oblique dig at Scholz over SPD climate policies from Baerbock) and instead set out their stalls.
Read 37 tweets

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