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Feb 11 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
What should be clear to everyone is that Russia has rejected diplomacy. They have now dismissed countless efforts to engage them on actual substance - mil exercises, conventional forces, deployment of mil assets. They've simply rejected talks. 1/
Instead, they're making farcical demands, essentially asking the US and Europe to control-alt-delete the last 25 yrs and go back to Soviet times when they ran Eastern Europe. Sorry, no. But they know that's not happening! All the huffing and puffing about NATO is just pretext. 2/
Putin lost Ukraine on HIS watch. And he is determined to bring it back under the Kremlin's sphere. And he's out of options. Corruption/influence ops/winning elections (ala Yanukovych) no longer work. Zelensky arrested Putin's man in Ukraine and seizing Crimea/Donbas shifted...3/
electoral balance and turned Ukrainians vs. Moscow. Diplomacy w/ Ukraine hasn't worked b/c Ukraine won't/can't implement Minsk. So what's left for him to get back control of Ukraine: military force. 4/

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Max Bergmann Profile picture
Dec 21, 2021
If Russia invades, there will be efforts to blame the US for somehow triggering the Kremlin. See the amount of attention given to Javelin (it's just a fancy RPG people!) or NATO expansion 20 yrs ago! No. The cause is that Putin lost Ukraine and he can't deal with that. 1/
Putin's strategy to control Ukraine hasn't worked. After Crimea/Donbas, killing of Ukrainian forces, etc., Ukrainians quite reasonably want little to do w/ Moscow. They want to be European (as do many Russians). Neither grayzone efforts nor Minsk has worked. 2/
To put it bluntly, Ukraine wants out of this abusive relationship. US/EU/NATO offered a lot of very conditional support, careful not to poke abusive/explosive Kremlin. So blaming aid for somehow triggering Russia means advocating doing nothing, staying out of it. But...3/
Read 4 tweets
Max Bergmann Profile picture
Sep 18, 2021
A few thoughts on @SangerNYT rundown.

1. France is right to be pissed. It's like they were left at the alter and found out via text. 2. But AUKSUS makes more strategic sense for Australia. No good way to end it w/ France. 3. US is stuck in the 90s..1/
nytimes.com/2021/09/17/us/…
on Europe. The US pivoted to Asia, yet for Europe we pretend like its still the 90s, when we were hyper-engaged and determined to call the shots. We pretend we haven't pivoted when it is clear we have! Now we want Europe to just follow and get in line but w/o really engaging.
We pay little attention. We don't really track EU developments, and we still treat the EU as if its some nascent multilat org just like we did in the 90s. But it's not the 90s! The EU is a thing. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Read 11 tweets
Max Bergmann Profile picture
Oct 12, 2020
The larger issue is not simply the Supreme Court but making Washington function again. What a new administration needs to push is Washington reform. Washington is broken. Reforms to the filibuster, courts, voting/elections is about Making Washington Work Again.
The public is deeply frustrated that nothing gets done. Problems aren’t fixed; they just get worse. Congress can’t pass legislation. The courts are partisan and have no credibility. A reform agenda to get Washington to function again... and then passing popular bills would be...
Immensely popular! Enacting transformational reform is also necessary to get us out of our political death spiral and realign our politics. The notion that by doing nothing and offering words of reconciliation to GOP will transform Washington is - at this point - laughable.
Read 4 tweets
Max Bergmann Profile picture
Oct 6, 2020
I've been thinking a lot about Trump's potential October surprise and the possible impact... and I struggle to see how another Russian hack/email dump and Barr/DOJ release...has anywhere close to the same impact as in 16. Thread. 1/
For one, the press get it now. In 2016 the press missed the huge shocking story staring them in the face: Russia was intervening in our election. And instead saw the email dump as "leaks." The Sunday shows on October 9th 2016 were shocking. 2/ amazon.com/Cyberwar-Russi…
This gave Clinton a month of damaging stories, a kin to a daily shelling, with some having a real impact. Trump for example ginned up a whole campaign saying Clinton was anti-Catholic based off a warped reading of a Podesta email exchange. 3/ vox.com/2018/4/25/1721…
Read 15 tweets
Max Bergmann Profile picture
Sep 10, 2020
The whistleblower statement is broad and damning and highlights illegality by Trump officials.

The press need to take note: Trump has succeeded in turning the IC into a political tool, tainting its analysis, and can’t be taken on face value. Quick thread: 1/ Image
Acting DHS Secretary Wolf “held” intel on Russian interference b/c it “made the President look bad.”... very curious what that was. Image
It is now clear they hyped the interference threat of China and Iran, claiming it was on par w/ Russia. DNI Official Willliam Evanina s/d be seen as a political actor, as his August statement is clearly BS. dni.gov/index.php/news… Image
Read 6 tweets
Max Bergmann Profile picture
Sep 5, 2020
So about that tape... and whether the Kremlin has Kompromat on POTUS...Senate Intel looked at the 2013 Moscow Miss Universe trip with meticulous detail and...
They found this really weird receipt that was billed to Trump’s room at the Ritz, especially for a guy who doesn’t smoke or drink. $720 to the hotel bar and $306 for shisha. Kinda sounds like he had some people over... Image
But who? Trump’s body man Keith Schiller said he was offered 5 prostitutes for Trump. Schiller says it was rejected. But the Committee has a very interesting footnote citing Cohen saying he is “the ultimate protector” and “keeper of Mr. Trump’s secrets” willing to “lie for Trump” ImageImage
Read 5 tweets

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