Many thanks @ErinBurnett for hosting me @OutFrontCNN on two important pieces of information related to 1) pediatric vaccinations for under 5 and 2) waning effectiveness for boosters
Regarding under 5 vaccinations we’ve known at the 3 microgram dose would require 3 doses in the 2-4 yo age group. The question is was there enough effectiveness with 2 doses to move forward now with expectation it would improve following the 3rd, especially bc of omicron storm
But @washingtonpost reported today that new data coming in last night gave the regulators pause on the effectiveness of 2 doses + omicron wave decelerating as fast as it went up, hence perhaps less urgency and therefore just wait for 3rd dose data in April
Regarding booster, we knew from @imperialcollege modeling back in December that protection from booster wanes after a few months and now we’ve repeated this in the US as reported in @CDCMMWR today. The question is, “now what”?
I feel we’ll likely move to a 4th dose strategy as I’ve already recommended for HCWs in my December @latimes opinion, while Israel also now gives 4th doses for immunocompromised and older ages. But does this mean booster every few months in perpetuity?
We need to first understand the basis of the declining effectiveness. Is it something specific to omicron or something more fundamental to the mRNA technology? I’ve recommended putting a task force or expert panel to help sort this out and whether we need to broaden our approach
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Whenever I post something about longCovid it’s usually the most RT. My sense is that the human suffering from the Covid pandemic due to longCovid especially in the US is enormous and we’ve only begun to unravel this. Asking @AliHMokdad@IHME_UW on some longCovid DALY estimates
DALYs = disability-adjusted life years, roughly years lost due to premature deaths or disabilities. I use @IHME_UW DALY estimates to help policymakers understand the debilitating effects of parasitic infections/NTDs, but this also could be a powerful advocacy tool for longCovid
Also the underlying molecular and immunological mechanisms for longCovid are fascinating but chilling. Some really interesting things, autoantibodies, microglial activation, some of this work by @VirusesImmunity
Among reasons I advocate for Americans to vaccinate: to prevent longCovid. Recent @CDCMMWR shows vaccination/boosting 3.6x reduction in infection. Vaccine refusal causes 23x increase in hospitalization but also longCovid consequences r devastating nytimes.com/2022/02/12/wel…
1/4 Many thanks @ChrisJansing for hosting me on @RuhleOnMSNBC my rationale for holding off another 2 weeks on lifting mask restrictions is as follows. We’ll know by then where we’re heading with Covid. Two different scenarios and we might know by then…
2/4 Scenario 1: covid continues its steep declines or deceleration and we reach a nadir, that’s a best case scenario and masks restrictions can probably lift
3/4 Scenario 2: Following BA.2 sub variant which is 30-50% more transmissible than original omicron variant if you can believe that. Now 3.6% of the US virus isolates are BA.2, it’s crunch time and we’ll know in 2 weeks if we have another tiger by the tail
We have just reached 80,000 COVID-19 deaths in the state of Texas: My graphic interpretation of the COVID-19 deaths before vaccines were widely available ("the virus") vs deaths after May 1 resulting from vaccine refusal and defiance ("anti-science")
Here’s why this is important. The nation still has tough Covid challenges ahead, and we urgently need strong leadership across multiple HHS agencies. Will summarize some of them in the attached tweets… cnn.com/2022/02/06/pol…
1: BA.2 some evidence that it’s even more transmissible than the original omicron which is more transmissible than delta, and so forth. If it takes hold like it did in Denmark it will slow the descent of original omicron here
2: Once we get through this omicron wave we’re likely still vulnerable to future waves of as yet unknown variants of concern. We need a planning strategy of how to manage a potential new variant in Texas and US Southern states this summer, or annual winter waves of Covid
Many thanks @AlexWitt for hosting me from the mountains beautiful Utah today where I’m speaking at a medical conference. I offered on my opinion on where we might head next in the coming months…
The hope is that omicron continues to decline in the US as fast as it accelerated. So far that seems to be what’s happening but we need to be careful: after omicron began its descent it got stuck halfway down and still remains
And you have the situation in Denmark 🇩🇰 where the BA.2 sub variant is creating problems, so omicron and it’s subvariants could be with us for a while..