anshul gupta Profile picture
Feb 14 16 tweets 3 min read
Scathing comments on Crypto from Mr Rabi Shankar - Deputy Governor, RBI.

1) On crypto being treated as a currency:
"Currency always has an issuer, usually a trusted entity like the sovereign. Even when gold is used as a currency, the gold coins had to be issued by a sovereign.
Secondly, historically, a currency has always been either a commodity with intrinsic value or a debt instrument. Cryptocurrencies do not conform
to this understanding as they do not have an issuer, they are not an instrument of debt/commodities nor do have any intrinsic value.
Currency needs trust, not everything that can be trusted is a currency. So even if technology (as
in a blockchain) provides the trust for cryptocurrencies, they can at best perform the role of a currency within the private and closed environment of that cryptocurrency.
They do not, and should not, automatically become a currency for the larger society "
2) On crypto being treated as a financial asset : "This is also problematic because all financial assets have underlying cash flows and need to be some person’s liability.
Cryptocurrencies are neither any person’s liability nor do they have any underlying cash flows. They are not financial assets, by definition."
3) On crypto being treated as a commodity : "Commodities are tangible and have utility; cryptocurrencies have neither. There is this somewhat
awkward attempt to equate some of them with gold, hence limiting their supply like natural resources, or creating them through mining.
Limiting supply by design is not same as limited supply in nature (like gold) because (a) design can be modified & hence such limitation is artificial, and (b) even if 1 cryptocurrency has limited supply, that limitation does not work for all cryptocurrencies taken together.
Further the fact that gold is mined does not in itself make it money, it has to be stamped and issued by a sovereign to make it money."
4) On crypto being treated as digital asset: "Even that is doubtful as cryptocurrencies do not have any underlying use, like for instance car hiring softwares or a core banking systems, or, for that matter,
smartphones.
That basically leads to conclusion that it's an electronic code (with no practical use) which has created enough hype such that people are willing to pay money to buy ownership rights to that electronic code, seemingly on the hope that someone else would buy it at a higher price
What started off as a medium of exchange has appeal similar to that of a speculative asset.
As a store of value, cryptocurrencies like bitcoin have given impressive returns so far, but so did tulips in 17th century Netherlands. Cryptocurrencies are very much like a speculative or gambling contract working like a Ponzi scheme.
In fact, it has been argued that the original scheme devised by Charles Ponzi in 1920 is better than
cryptocurrencies from a social perspective. Even Ponzi schemes invest in income earning assets.
A bitcoin is akin to a zero-coupon perpetual; it’s like you paid money to buy a bond which pays no interest and which will never pay back the principal. A
bond with similar cash flows would be valued at 0, which, in fact, can be argued as the fundamental value of a crypto"
Full speech can be read at :
rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_Spe…

Interestingly its second time in a week that tulip reference has been used by RBI 🙂

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More from @anshgupta64

Feb 15
LIC, India’s crown jewel is set to have the biggest IPO ever. Currently at 18,300 crores, Paytm was the biggest IPO yet followed by Coal India at 15,159 crores. LIC is expected to be at least 50,000 crores.

Few interesting facts about LIC. A 🧵

#LICIPO Image
1) LIC is more than 65 years old. In 5 years it will be ineligible for its own policies 🙂
2) Persistency ratio - This is the amount of policies that are getting renewed after the 13th month of purchase. How does LIC compare to top private insurers like HDFC life and ICICI pru life? Image
Read 23 tweets
Feb 13
Sri Lanka is facing an economic crisis and is on the verge of default.

What led to this situation?

A thread 🧵
1) Huge amount of tax breaks - In 2019 elections, the government had promised a large amount of tax breaks. They announced a number of tax cuts like no capital gains, VAT cut from 15% to 8%, half tax for construction companies etc.
While the government did deliver on its election promises, state revenues took a big hit.
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Feb 12
RBI governor, Shaktikanta Das recently took a dig at crypto saying there is no underlying asset, not even a tulip.

What does this mean?

It was a reference to the tulip mania of the 1600s.

Thread🧵
Ogier de Busbecq was the ambassador of the Holy Roman Emperor to the Sultan of Turkey. The Sultan sent with Ogier, the first tulip seeds and bulbs to Vienna.
He planted the same. These bulbs started getting distributed to Antwerp, Amsterdam, Netherlands, etc. The tulips grew remarkably well in the Netherlands.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 11
Central Bankers falling behind the curve.

Short thread🧵
Economies across the world are seeing high inflation. US inflation touched 7.5% (something that hasn’t been seen in the last 40 years or so).
The eurozone inflation has gone up to a 25 year high of 5.1% in January 2022.
Central Banks have been slow to raise rates across the world even though inflation has gone up to multi-year highs.

Ideally, rates should have been increased before inflation levels rose so high.
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Feb 10
In monetary policy today, RBI has hiked the FPI limit for investment in Indian debt securities by 1 lakh crore (from 1.5 lakhs cr to 2.5 lakh crore) under the VRR.

What is VRR?

A short thread below. Image
VRR stands for the voluntary retention route.

As a foreign investor, a developing country like India, holds a lot of potential for investment, high growth and and regular demand for capital to run businesses.
However, foreign capital is volatile.

We saw this in our equity markets as well recently. So to prevent this volatility, there are a lot of restrictions on which foreign investors can hold Indian debt, how much and how they can invest.
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Jan 29
Pakistan recently raised USD 1Billion through Islamic bonds at 7.95% to maintain its forex reserves.

As per Sharia (Islamic law) lending with interest payments is prohibited, which is considered exploitative in nature. Thus, bonds are forbidden in Islamic finance.
So how can institutions raise Sharia compliant money? They issue Sukuk.

Sukuk is an Islamic financial certificate that represents a portion of ownership in a portfolio of eligible existing or future assets.
When investors buy Sukuk, they become entitled to receive periodic profit payments from underlying assets. Upon maturity Sukuk holders get back the principal amount. The periodic payment may be in the form of rent from the asset or the profit made by the asset in the market.
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