1. Good 🧵from @daniel_freund on @EU_Commission's delays in triggering Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation. I'll add a few thoughts of my own in this brief 🧵. With @EUCourtPress about to rule on HU & PL annulment actions, important to keep some facts straight. (1/15)
https://twitter.com/daniel_freund/status/1493284886093910018
2. @EU_Commission's decision to delay application of Regulation until after @EUCourtPress rules on annulment actions this week was unlawful. The filing of an annulment action does not suspend the applicability of a Regulation. But Commission agreed to delay on political grounds
3. As @daniel_freund says, this was part of a delaying tactic, giving Orban time to delay any application of the Conditionality Reg so that he could keep EU money that sustains his regime flowing until after the upcoming election. He has succeeded.
4. Given all the steps in the Regulation, the earliest funds could be suspended realistically would be late August or September. But given that @vonderleyen has shown herself to be weak on rule of law, I'd expect her to delay even longer (if she ever acts) politico.eu/article/ursula…
5. Anyway, while I don't hold out much hope that @EU_Commission will apply the regulation anytime soon (if ever), we must be clear that its refusal to apply the regulation results from vdL's lack of political commitment to protect rule of law not from weaknesses of the regulation
6. @JMorijn Scheppele & I already wrote a model notification under art 6.4 of the regulation for the Commission to send to HU back in July. The EP rapporteurs who wrote the reg endorsed it. The work is done. danielfreund.eu/wp-content/upl…
7. Some pundits seem to think that the fact that rule of law must seriously risk affecting the sound financial management of EU funds or the protection of financial interests of the EU "in a sufficiently direct way" is a big limitation. This is incorrect
8. As we showed in our report, systematic deficiencies in management of EU funds, prosecution services, and judicial independence meet the standard to apply the regulation 
9. Importantly, @EU_Commission doesn't need to point to specific instances of fraud. Indeed, most of those can be dealt with adequately by other instruments.
10. The distinctive feature of the RoL conditionality regulation is that it is preventive and risk-based - enabling Comm to act when rule of law breaches seriously risk affecting the EU budget.
11. EU leaders have refused to apply the Regulation for same reason they have refused to use other tools at EU's disposal, ie general reluctance to challenge govts on democratic backsliding, dirty political deals with these regimes & fear they veto EU action in other areas
12. I summarize my past work explaining all of this here in this brief article (starting on p. 73): feps-europe.eu/attachments/pu…
13. Now, on top of the usual excuses for inaction, there is crisis in Ukraine; many leaders will point to need for maintaining unity in face of Putin's aggression as reason to delay action on HU or PL (ironic given that Orban serves as Putin's Trojan Horse inside the EU)
14. So, though I & many others will continue to push for application of the Reg, I don't any of us should hold our breath. At least @EU_Commission has withheld distribution of Recovery Funds to PL & HU, but I fear they may cave in there soon & release the funds
15. As long as the EU continues to fund these regimes, it is supporting democratic backsliding. For all its talk about democracy promotion, the EU has become one of the most generous funders of autocratisation in the world lavishing money on the 2 fastest backsliders worldwide.
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