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R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
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28 Oct, 5 tweets, 5 min read
🧵Last week I expressed fear that @vonderleyen would cave in- pretending to act on rule of law while actually handing funds to autocrats. It seems she's doing just that. Shameful capitulation- snatching defeat from jaws of victory at moment of max leverage
2. I hope I'm wrong but if- as it seems she will from statement in @Mij_Europe tweet- the appeaser @vonderleyen approves release of Covid recovery funds she will be breaking the law as @DanielSarmiento @ProfPech @JMorijn & @alemannoEU explain here: thegoodlobby.eu/2021/08/30/6-r…
3. As @Mij_Europe & @ProfPech 👉 point out, all @vonderleyen calls for in her answer is a meaningless "commitment" from 🇵🇱 govt to comply w/ 🇪🇺 law & restore judicial independence, not any actual compliance. Commitments from lying autocrats are worthless
4. Btw/ to understand why @vonderleyen is caving in to autocrats when @EU_Commission has so much leverage, see this piece. Like her mentor Merkel, vdL is an appeaser who is weak on rule of law. I keep hoping she'll change, but so far have been disappointed politico.eu/article/ursula…
5. There may still be hope to block release of covid recovery funds if democracy defenders in EUCO like 🇧🇪🇫🇮🇸🇪🇳🇱 rally enough votes. Not impossible, but given Merkel's push for appeasement & Macron's apparent acquiescence, it will be tough to get needed votes. I hope I'm wrong.

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More from @rdanielkelemen

R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
19 Oct
1. Yes @alemannoEU this is my fear too. At its very moment of maximum leverage, I fear the @EU_Commission will choose the path of appeasing autocrats & hand Orban & Kaczynski regimes billions of EU taxpayers funds while they flout EU's fundamental rules. Here's how it could go.🧵
2. First, the Commission would PRETEND to trigger the rule of law conditionality regulation without actually doing so. How? By sending a request for info to Hungary and Poland under Art 6(4) of the reg & pretending this counts as triggering the regulation eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
3. Note: This doesn't count as actually triggering the regulation!!!! To actually trigger it, they would have to send a formal notice to the countries under article 6(4) (we drafted it for them danielfreund.eu/wp-content/upl… But they want to stall & appease, so they'll just ask for info
Read 10 tweets
R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
31 Aug
Poland’s sham “constitutional tribunal” - which is an illegal composed body full of “fake judges” rather than a court- is about to declare that it can ignore ECJ & that Polish regime can continue destroying judicial independence. Quick 🧵 reuters.com/world/europe/p…
First it is important to recognize that the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has already ruled that Poland’s so-called constitutional court is not a “tribunal established by law”. So no one should heed its so-called “rulings” notesfrompoland.com/2021/05/07/pol…
Second, the PiS regime’s fake court will of course cite the @BVerfG’s rulings on constitutional identity to justify its defiance of EU law. This was 100% predictable & some of us (like @ProfPech & I) have been predicting it for years reconnect-europe.eu/wp-content/upl…
Read 4 tweets
R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
24 Aug
1. Pleased to announce publication of @jepp_journal special issue edited by @SophieLMeunier, @Erik_Jones_SAIS, & I on "Failing forward? Crises & patterns of European integration?" Here's a 🧵about it... tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
2. In a 2016 special issue of @cps_journal edited by @mcopelov @stefwalter__ & @jafrieden on the political economy of the euro crisis, we published an article titled "Failing Forward? The Euro Crisis and the Incomplete Nature of European Integration" journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
3. Here's the abstract of the paper, in which we combined insights from intergovernmentalism & neofunctionalism to explain why in some circumstances European integration proceeded through a pattern of crisis & incomplete institutional reform, which we called "failing forward"
Read 21 tweets
R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
7 Jul
1. Very proud to have coauthored this report on the legal case for activating the rule of law conditionality Regulation against Hungary with Kim Scheppele and @JMorijn, at the request of @daniel_freund & @GreensEFA. Quick 🧵below & here is the report 👉 danielfreund.eu/wp-content/upl…
2. Essentially, we did the @EU_Commission's work for it. We drafted a model "notification" under Article 6(1) of the Rule of Law Conditionality regulation, which is the first step the Commission must take to trigger the regulation with respect to a member state
3. The @EU_Commission is supposed to send such a notification to a member state when it determines that breaches of rule of law principles affect or seriously risk affecting the management of the EU budget or the financial interests of the Union
Read 15 tweets
R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
18 Mar
304. #BrexitReality ✈️🛬👨‍✈️👩‍✈️"Post-Brexit aviation policy has failed UK carriers, it was claimed this week.

Many airlines are struggling to gain EU flight permits, while contending with European competition domestically, said one executive."
theloadstar.com/uk-charter-air…
305. #BrexitReality "Brexit blamed for British exports to Ireland falling 65% in January

New customs rules also a factor in 41% drop in value of goods moving from UK to the EU"

theguardian.com/business/2021/…
306. #BrexitReality “Brussels capped interchange fees for all transactions inside the EU in 2015” but with Brexit... “Visa is to force through a series of post-Brexit fee increases which could place fresh pressure on consumers and small businesses” ft.com/content/4820b6…
Read 699 tweets
R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
14 Mar
282. #BrexitReality “truth will out. Day by bleak day, the epic damage caused by this execrable deception, this shameful Conservative con, becomes ever more evident. No amount of Michael Gove spin can hide the facts.” theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
283. #BrexitReality “Collapse of trade with EU will ‘last until the summer’.
Delays and confusion at the UK’s ports threatens to put hundreds of small and medium-sized exporters out of business” - @phillipinman theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
284. #BrexitReality “We have increased export paperwork, cash is tied up in raw materials from the EU as we have to hold greater stocks; there has been a massive increase in shipping costs"
independent.co.uk/news/business/…
Read 710 tweets

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