Share this page!

R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
Twitter logo
19 Oct, 10 tweets, 5 min read
1. Yes @alemannoEU this is my fear too. At its very moment of maximum leverage, I fear the @EU_Commission will choose the path of appeasing autocrats & hand Orban & Kaczynski regimes billions of EU taxpayers funds while they flout EU's fundamental rules. Here's how it could go.🧵
2. First, the Commission would PRETEND to trigger the rule of law conditionality regulation without actually doing so. How? By sending a request for info to Hungary and Poland under Art 6(4) of the reg & pretending this counts as triggering the regulation eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
3. Note: This doesn't count as actually triggering the regulation!!!! To actually trigger it, they would have to send a formal notice to the countries under article 6(4) (we drafted it for them danielfreund.eu/wp-content/upl… But they want to stall & appease, so they'll just ask for info
4. Meanwhile, having pretended to trigger the regulation, @EU_Commission will use that as political cover for releasing the covid recovery funds to HU & PL, thereby giving up the massive leverage they have at the moment.
5. Note again: that legally speaking the Commission absolutely should not release the recovery funds to these governments, given the massive rule of law violations there. See this piece explaining why thegoodlobby.eu/2021/08/30/6-r…
6. I hope I'm wrong about this, and I still hold out hope for tougher action. Certainly the Benelux govs in EUCO want to do more as do some Commissioners who truly care about rule of law like @dreynders @VeraJourova & @TimmermansEU
7. However, as we've seen from Merkel's recent intervention () - again resisting calls for action to defend rule of law, she remains the leading supporter of autocrats inside the EU (@m2matthijs & I discuss it here) foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/09/ang…
8. And sadly, @vonderleyen, has a track record of appeasing autocrats (politico.eu/article/ursula…) Her speech today sounded a bit tougher, so perhaps she'll change her ways, but I fear that she may only pretend to act, while in practice giving in to pressure from the autocrats.
9. If Poland & Hungary are allowed to complete their destruction of judicial independence, their consolidation of hybrid authoritarian regimes, & their flouting of EU law -& rewarded with billions in new EU funds while doing so- it will be a truly existential crisis for the EU
Correction: this tweet should have said “notice to the countries under article 6(1)”

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with R. Daniel Kelemen

R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @rdanielkelemen

R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
31 Aug
Poland’s sham “constitutional tribunal” - which is an illegal composed body full of “fake judges” rather than a court- is about to declare that it can ignore ECJ & that Polish regime can continue destroying judicial independence. Quick 🧵 reuters.com/world/europe/p…
First it is important to recognize that the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has already ruled that Poland’s so-called constitutional court is not a “tribunal established by law”. So no one should heed its so-called “rulings” notesfrompoland.com/2021/05/07/pol…
Second, the PiS regime’s fake court will of course cite the @BVerfG’s rulings on constitutional identity to justify its defiance of EU law. This was 100% predictable & some of us (like @ProfPech & I) have been predicting it for years reconnect-europe.eu/wp-content/upl…
Read 4 tweets
R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
24 Aug
1. Pleased to announce publication of @jepp_journal special issue edited by @SophieLMeunier, @Erik_Jones_SAIS, & I on "Failing forward? Crises & patterns of European integration?" Here's a 🧵about it... tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
2. In a 2016 special issue of @cps_journal edited by @mcopelov @stefwalter__ & @jafrieden on the political economy of the euro crisis, we published an article titled "Failing Forward? The Euro Crisis and the Incomplete Nature of European Integration" journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…
3. Here's the abstract of the paper, in which we combined insights from intergovernmentalism & neofunctionalism to explain why in some circumstances European integration proceeded through a pattern of crisis & incomplete institutional reform, which we called "failing forward"
Read 21 tweets
R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
7 Jul
1. Very proud to have coauthored this report on the legal case for activating the rule of law conditionality Regulation against Hungary with Kim Scheppele and @JMorijn, at the request of @daniel_freund & @GreensEFA. Quick 🧵below & here is the report 👉 danielfreund.eu/wp-content/upl…
2. Essentially, we did the @EU_Commission's work for it. We drafted a model "notification" under Article 6(1) of the Rule of Law Conditionality regulation, which is the first step the Commission must take to trigger the regulation with respect to a member state
3. The @EU_Commission is supposed to send such a notification to a member state when it determines that breaches of rule of law principles affect or seriously risk affecting the management of the EU budget or the financial interests of the Union
Read 15 tweets
R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
18 Mar
304. #BrexitReality ✈️🛬👨‍✈️👩‍✈️"Post-Brexit aviation policy has failed UK carriers, it was claimed this week.

Many airlines are struggling to gain EU flight permits, while contending with European competition domestically, said one executive."
theloadstar.com/uk-charter-air…
305. #BrexitReality "Brexit blamed for British exports to Ireland falling 65% in January

New customs rules also a factor in 41% drop in value of goods moving from UK to the EU"

theguardian.com/business/2021/…
306. #BrexitReality “Brussels capped interchange fees for all transactions inside the EU in 2015” but with Brexit... “Visa is to force through a series of post-Brexit fee increases which could place fresh pressure on consumers and small businesses” ft.com/content/4820b6…
Read 699 tweets
R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
14 Mar
282. #BrexitReality “truth will out. Day by bleak day, the epic damage caused by this execrable deception, this shameful Conservative con, becomes ever more evident. No amount of Michael Gove spin can hide the facts.” theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
283. #BrexitReality “Collapse of trade with EU will ‘last until the summer’.
Delays and confusion at the UK’s ports threatens to put hundreds of small and medium-sized exporters out of business” - @phillipinman theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
284. #BrexitReality “We have increased export paperwork, cash is tied up in raw materials from the EU as we have to hold greater stocks; there has been a massive increase in shipping costs"
independent.co.uk/news/business/…
Read 710 tweets
R. Daniel Kelemen Profile picture
11 Mar
263. #BrexitReality “Last week the Chancellor accepted the OBR’s forecasts of a 4% reduction in national income once the full effects of Brexit are felt.

Overall, the net cost of Johnson’s Brexit to the public finances will come in at almost £30 billion each year.”
264. #BrexitReality “UK manufacturers lose revenue and business since leaving EU
Survey shows more than 33% have suffered increased costs as a result of delays and red tape” ft.com/content/ba6452…
265. #BrexitReality “One of the few dairies allowed to make Stilton said it has had to stop sales to the European Union (EU) since Brexit.
Hartington Creamery at Pikehall, Derbyshire, said the paperwork needed for each order was costing too much.” bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
Read 720 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @rdanielkelemen has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @rdanielkelemen!

Read all threads by @rdanielkelemen

:(