Lots of great points in your piece and 🧵 @Mij_Europe & I agree that action on HU is more likely than on PL, but a couple arguments made by officials that you convey here (their claims not yours) need to be corrected 1/n
https://twitter.com/mij_europe/status/1493851391407833098
2. You write, “senior officials in Brussels’ other institutions argue that its scope is in fact much narrower, that it is a tool designed to protect EU taxpayers from fraud. Thus, if it’s possible to prove EU budget funds have been misused, they can be suspended.”
3. Sure they may argue that, but they are 100% wrong. (I suspect they know they are wrong and are just hunting for excuses for inaction). That just isn’t what the regulation says at all!
4. As @JMorijn Scheppele & I explained in our study for @Europarl_EN “the Regulation explicitly demands the Commission take a proactive, risk-based approach to protect the EU budget” danielfreund.eu/wp-content/upl… 
5. “This does not require the Commission to wait until specific instances of fraud can be documented, but instead requires the Commission to act to address serious risk of such fraud or abuse created by existing breaches of rule of law principles enumerated in the Regulation.”
6. Indeed, if they detect specific instances of fraud it is more appropriate to apply pre-existing instruments for protecting the budget against fraud. So officials who push the line you quote are either confused or just being dishonest
7. Also while I think you are right that @EU_Commission is more likely to trigger reg vs Hungary than vs Poland (if it triggers it at all) for reasons you suggest, we shouldn’t be fooled by Duda’s recent moves
8. His suggested reforms of disciplinary chamber & apparent divides with Ziobro may convince @EU_Commission to delay any action, but there is no indication that Duda or Kaczynski have any intention of backing away from destruction of judicial independence
9. As @ProfPech @JMorijn @J_Jaraczewski & many others have pointed out, the PiS government & its captured “courts” are continuing & even accelerating the persecution of remaining independent judges
10. So when you say “there are also tentative signs the government, or at least parts of it, are trying to resolve the conflict with Brussels”. Sure they want to resolve conflict in sense that they want their recovery funds released, but no sign they intend to comply with ECJ…
11. Or stop their assault on judicial independence domestically. But all that said, again agree with your conclusion that @EU_Commission triggering the conditionality Reg on Hungary is more likely than on Poland- for now. END
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