Thread by @GrayConnolly

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov discussing talks and a way forward should be grasped by all sensible people who want to settle the Ukraine issue & who realise the Ukrainians & Russians are much better off as neighbours with security agreements than combatants in a war

That both of Lavrov and Putin would do this publicly - and release this video - is a (hopeful) sign that the Russians will negotiate a settlement. News of German and Polish delegations going to Moscow are to be welcomed. A war would be a disaster.

This by @andrewmichta on Russia & Ukraine is a view somewhat contrary to my own but, like me, you should read everything by Andrew, anyway, as the people making policy certainly are (and I suspect so is the Kremlin an avid reader of Andrew).

19fortyfive.com/2022/02/ukrain…

So far, Biden is striking the right tone about Russia and the need for diplomacy. Problem is whether Russia sees a limited offensive as in its interests (as it perceives the West as incoherent) & it will risk divergence among the Western powers on what sanctions will be imposed.

This Operations/Plans map by @PhilipIngMBE is still the best I have seen. I would caution everyone against anxiety & fear until you have verified reports of Russian advances. Russian way of war uses 'maskirovka'. In War as in Peace, see, instead, matters as they truly are.

There is a straight line from the Allied collapse in Bagram, Kandahar and Kabul in last June-August 2021 right through to this current nadir in respect of Russian pushes in and on Ukraine … the future history of this period will be variations on titles like “from Kabul to Kiev”

As of now: still unsure what has really happened in eastern Ukraine beyond usual skirmishing. Reports of 'imminent attacks' as yet not launched. Germans say they are in NATO but act as de facto Russian vassals. There comes a point where this drags on ... and on ... but then ...

The Germans claim to be a core NATO ally but in practice behave as a Russian vassal state … this is nothing short of embarrassing … what is “Cringe” in German?

cnbc.com/2022/02/19/ukr…

Resistance to Russian advances will come from Baltic (Poles & Baltic States) & Black (Turks) seas. The Russian ambition is Belarus & Ukraine, so north and south defensive flanks become concerns … why I mention Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave between Poland & the Baltics so often.

Vladimir Putin has been Russian President or Prime Minister since 1999. I do not understand the argument that Putin or the Russians, generally, are, without more, intimidated by transient American presidencies (esp this one) or disarmed Europeans dependent on Russian energy.

If you want to help counter the Russian push into Ukraine, then reinforce the Poles and Baltics now. It will stiffen the backs of the Ukranians & cause the Turks (part of NATO) to not blink before Moscow & for Ankara to give military aid to the Ukes. Also will shame Germany

The Russians hitting not just targets ivo Donbass but apparently Kiev - means the Russians are playing for keeps here. Kiev has no particular military significance but has obvious symbolic importance. Ukranian will to resist will collapse without reinforcing the Poles & Turks

It is 8am in Kiev - the weather is 2°C with drizzle. In Kharkov, it will get up to 6°C. This is quite good weather for the Russian advance, esp at this time of year.

It is 0713 in Kiev - the weather is ~8°C.

So many conflicting reports of wins/losses/casualties that I am assuming almost all are very dubious and a function of information warfare to shape Anglophone media perceptions where most people know nothing.

Suspect it now dawns on the Russian Stavka that Kiev’s underground metro stations & train tunnels will be used to move troops & supplies around the city & function as HQ depots. Russians face dilemma of a well protected insurgency or bringing in heavier munitions to collapse them

It is 0442 in Kiev - sunrise around 0700ish … weather will get to 7 degrees C and drizzle. Hard day’s fighting ahead, it seems

Many if not most of the images and stories coming out of this war & being shared are fake/old/shaped for PR effects. The only people who really know (on day 4) how this war is actually progressing are in the Kremlin/Stavka vs Ukrainian higher command (and Allied ISR).

It is 0603 Sunday in Kiev. The weather is forecast for cloudy and 4°C (good defenders' weather). Rest of the week forecast to be this cold/colder. By now, Allied support to UKR will have to include not just weapons/ammo, graphite, etc, but easily utilised & filling ration packs.

Was asked by a colleague what I made of the Russian war in Ukraine right now & where this goes. I emailed, inter alia, this response. I could well be wrong. But these are more or less my thoughts on the War's progress and prospects as of now.

One of many reasons why Western wishcasting re Kremlin intrigues is so idiotic is that the only source of power that could (hypothetically) depose Putin is the Russian armed forces - who have benefied from Putin & made Russia (again) a garrison state

foreignaffairs.com/articles/2022-…

Russian invasion: day 5. The Russian push from North (encircling Kiev), from east (Russian enclaves), and from south (Crimea), continues.

Very hard going but a reminder that the Coalition took 42 days to overwhelm a very debilitated & entirely friendless Saddam’s Iraq in 2003.

The Russians will I suspect want to close the ring around Kiev within days not weeks … every day Kiev is open to resupply makes any Russian occupation harder. When the Russians fall into a static occupation, they are most at danger from Ukrainian insurgency esp with foreign vols

At present, as set out above, the Russians are trying to use their different pincers to push against the east/central Ukrainian defensive core. Question for Russians and Ukes is what offensive/defensive lines of operation do they now prioritise and then execute against?

I understand the appeal of a no fly zone but - put aside risking escalating the conflict to WW3 etc - it actually will not work as the Russians are barely using their considerable airpower. The Russians are using rockets and artillery as per their traditional Russian way of war

At the risk of repeating myself: the Russians (esp) as well as the Ukrainians are in a war and have sophisticated information operations to fight in the news battlespace, esp in Western countries. A lot of videos & stories are faked to reinforce/change your views. Wake up, peeps!

In terms of where the war is:
- Russians grind out an advance
- Ukrainians defending aggressively
- question is whether Western arms & volunteers can get into Ukraine's fight before any Russian pincers & rings around Kiev close.
- ignore supposed timetables...the combatants are.

For ground assaults, the field manual ratio required for an attacker to overwhelm a defender is 3:1. Russia is 3 times Ukraine's population & has an enormous military establishment. However, Ukrainians are fighting, they are getting Western arms/ammo & may soon have Western vols

As I said above, the battle now is whether the Russians can grind out a victory quicker than Ukraine can get foreign resupplies & arms. While as Napoleon said, in war, everything comes down to morale, the iron rules of time, space, logistics, and weapons/ammo usage, apply

More broadly, as discussed pre-war, the Russian invasion will generate large Refugee outflows & foreign fighter arrivals, which will both plague the EU for years. Do not discount that Russia's invasion plan considered this a desirable effect to debilitate the EU & NATO frontiers.

A key aspect of the Russians way of war is stoking dissension & chaos in your adversary's rear. The Russians do this with Information Operations. The Russians also do this by creating massive refugee flows & foreign fighters influxes. There is method in what Russia does here.

Day 6: it is 0605 in Kiev, sunrise is at ~0700, with a top of 3°C for today, with temperatures around that for the next week. Good weather to be moving around in ... providing you have been recently fed and got some sleep

This by @SamoBurja on the Russian military and its way of war - in which there is method in what may seem the war machine’s madness to the West - is very good. The historic Russian focus on artillery cannot be too overemphasised

city-journal.org/putins-bet

In terms of where the war is:
- Russian advance continues
- Ukrainians defending aggressively
- Russian pincers are very slowly closing in .... question remains whether Western arms & volunteers can get into Ukraine's fight first?
- Again, ignore pundits on 'war by timetable'

The Russian advance & its northern & southern pincers slowly close … issue for Ukrainians is what defensive effort do you prioritise & execute on? Logically keeping Kiev open esp to resupply and volunteers seems one - but not if you eventually intend to fall back across Dnieper

Russian northern & southern thrusts are now slowly closing in .... Question becomes what is the next move for the Ukrainians & are new weapons/ammunition & foreign volunteers arriving quickly enough .... Commander's dilemma: what do you prioritise? Where is your focus?

Again: the Russian pincers (north and south) very slowly but relentlessly, close - note in south, post Kherson, a Russian advance NW/around Mykolaiv .... question in east for UKR is do you keep fighting Kharkiv-Donbass or start to pull back to consolidate a new defensive line?

Day 7 end/Day 8 begin: RUS advances further & UKR forces now being squeezed into a central defensive 'blob' astride Dnieper ... RUS have UKR in a 'bite and hold' in east leading to (1) RUS drive to link up Kharkiv-Donbass fronts & (2) possible RUS drive south & then west of Kiev

I discussed the military aspects [in what was hopefully plain English] of the Russian invasion of Ukraine here. You can listen to a recording of the discussion here. I speak to the maps above & try to see the war as of now from the Ukrainian & Russian HQs
twitter.com/i/spaces/1lPJq…

Two RUS curiosities:
- the 60 mile "Convoy" north of Kiev
- the Amphibious task force in the Black Sea
Both mocked by analysts here - both also 'unknowns' of RUS plans that occupy military minds & thus divert UKR forces. This may just be the point of them .... #Maskirovka

Amid discussions re Russia, Belarus & Baltics: as I have discussed here (and on radio etc) please always note Russia's Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad [old imperial Konigsberg], wedged between Poland & the Baltics. Russia's military presence here [inc Baltic Fleet HQ] is large

Day 8 end/9 begins: RUS advances & UKR reduced into a central defensive 'blob' astride Dnieper ... RUS driving now to link up ivo Mariupol & then (I think) (1) link up the Kharkiv-Donbass fronts & (2) a RUS central drive from east to west & Kiev encirclement...an Odessa landing?

Further British MOD map showing the eastern RUS fronts in Kharkiv & Donbass moving to link up. The RUS push out of Crimea into the south-east now sees Mariupol encircled. Again, the UKR face having to set a defensive central front that can repel Russian advances west to Dnieper

Central priority for UKR defenders must be keeping Kiev open & setting a central defensive line that is sustainable & able to repel Russian advances. UKR will have advantage of "interior lines". Getting in reinforcements from foreign volunteers & arms/ammo must be UKR's priority.

“Today, March 5, from 10 am Moscow time (0700 GMT), the Russian side declares a regime of silence and opens humanitarian corridors for the exit of civilians from Mariupol and Volnovakha,”

theguardian.com/world/2022/mar…

I note there are many war maps going around. I only use the @TheStudyofWar and @DefenceHQ maps as I trust the granular details they seem to run down in order to produce the map (I suspect both produced by serving/ex military staffs used to running operations & ground truthing)

New British MOD map of the RUS-UKR war released. Again, RUS advance continues + discernible RUS plan to link up RUS' eastern & south-eastern fronts...and then begin a drive west across the Dnieper, while Kiev is slowly encircled. UKR needs to re-form a central defensive perimeter

My periodic note of caution: Twitter is telling you that the war is all RUS losses & UKR wins .... the analysis by the UK @DefenceHQ and @TheStudyofWar tells a completely different story of the various Russian fronts (north, east, south) enclosing the central Ukrainian front

Further @TheStudyofWar map showing the eastern RUS forces in Kharkiv & Donbass now close to link up. The RUS advance out of Crimea now sees Mariupol encircled & RUS' Crimea-Donbass forces joined. Again: UKR have to fix a defensive central front asap to repel Russian advances

The RUS war machine is in gear and advancing
Unless the UKR gets its forces in a proper defensive front that allows it to draw on incoming foreign volunteers & new weapons/ammo, the RUS will grind out a win east of the Dnieper.
The real RUS peril lies west of the Dnieper.

Prudent planning by Western countries in case of a Ukrainian collapse. All states have a sort of “living will”. Given the Russians have said repeatedly they do not want to occupy & their army is too small to occupy UKR, this may be DC signalling to Kiev

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

Another day, another @TheStudyofWar map: again, RUS fronts ivo Kharkov & Donbass close to joining up while the RUS effort to take the Black Sea coast continues (Odessa landing?). The UKR need a defensive central core - the foreign volunteers the UKR most need now are Sappers

On any view, the US Secretary of State has been reading my thread on the Russian invasion of Ukraine

New UK MOD map with indications that:
- RUS columns advancing on Kiev to encircle city
- RUS Kharkov forces advancing SE to link up with RUS Donbass forces
- RUS forces in Crimea AO have linked up with Donbas on Sea of Azov
- UKR forces in central defensive blob astride Dnieper