Thread by @lymanstoneky

I mean in principle Ukraine wants to keep as many civilians in the sky above them as possible, as it complicates Russia's PR issue. It's not exactly a dignified move but when you're the underdog you use what you've got.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1493143816718753795

The big question to me in an invasion is really just the will to fight. If Ukraine's people and army and police *want* to resist, they won't be able to beat the Russians in a head to head fight, but they can make it prohibitively costly and extremely bloody for the Russians.

But despite years of war in the east, it really seems like a big question mark on how much resistance Russia will face. It's not like there's a determined years-long insurgency ongoing in Crimea or something.

One can imagine a determined and patriotic resistance against Russia up to and including insurgency against whatever regime Russia tries to set up.

But one can also easily imagine major segments of the military defecting, others fleeing for the Polish border...

... and the people of Ukraine deciding it's hopeless to resist and accepting whatever placeholder regime Putin puts in power, on the hope that eventually it will collapse.

I do wonder though if army units tried to flee west, if any country would take them. Big gamble!

Of course there's also the outside possibility that Russia's army turns out to be way less well organized and tried and determined than expected and Ukraine pulls out a miracle and actually halts the advance before Kyiv. But it doesn't seem this is what most people expect.