I honestly have no idea! Like if Brazil started developing a missile defense system or something.... would the US complain? Is there any precedent here we can look to?
China and Russia routinely claim that the US setting up missile defenses is a provocative move even though US missile defenses are basically worthless against an actual peer power threat.
Do we say the same thing to them? Do they even invest a lot in missile defense? I have absolutely no idea.
I mean we unilaterally withdrew from the ABM in 2002, so I feel like that's a signal that we are kinda okay with other countries doing their thing on missile defense.
Apparently India, France, and Japan all have semi-indigenous ABM systems and we have never complained about any of them, so, idk. Seems like we are okay with other countries having this tech.
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the funny thing here is that the Canadian system actually is really awful, because any *province* can suspend basically *any* right for however long they want.
there's just a cultural divide here about what we believe public schools are supposed to be doing. one side sees this as gagging a legitimate function of schools, the other sees schools being reigned in from going into totally illegitimate functions.
idk man, i kinda don't want the school i pay tax dollars to to spend the money teaching my child to hate the things i believe? and i think this is a perfectly reasonable sentiment that actually almost everybody shares?
I mean in principle Ukraine wants to keep as many civilians in the sky above them as possible, as it complicates Russia's PR issue. It's not exactly a dignified move but when you're the underdog you use what you've got.
The big question to me in an invasion is really just the will to fight. If Ukraine's people and army and police *want* to resist, they won't be able to beat the Russians in a head to head fight, but they can make it prohibitively costly and extremely bloody for the Russians.
But despite years of war in the east, it really seems like a big question mark on how much resistance Russia will face. It's not like there's a determined years-long insurgency ongoing in Crimea or something.
One thing to understand about the post-2008 rich-world fertility decline is it happened to the very-conservative formerly-high-fertility subgroups too:
Here's the Amish. Amish TFR is down from about 7 in 2008 to under 5 in 2020.
The Amish!
And tbh the Amish decline looks like it began in the 1970s and has just been slowly falling every since
First and foremost, selling out thirty churches doesn't even sell you enough books to get on NYT's bestseller list for a week. America is a big place and this kind of rally tour ends up covering a shockingly small share of people.
So the first thing I think worth noting is that human psychological intuitions about crowd size are misleading. We see huge crowds and imagine them to be majorities; but America is a country of hundreds of millions, crowds of people the mind cannot even imagine.