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Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
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Feb 15 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Backfire and Kinzhal to Syria.

Again.

Also new normal?

#hyperhype
Kinzhal ground operations.
At least four Tu-22M3 in Syria.

Footage from flights over the Mediterranean:

I wonder if there is any infrastructure for Kh-22 (-32?) maintenance?..

(but they can very well fly with mockups too)

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More from @KomissarWhipla

Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Feb 16
Provocative thought: simultaneous deployment of assorted and numerous units to the Western borders of Russia, and their movement back to bases afterwards has a value in itself. Training of full-spectrum support, identifying choke points and weak links, C3 on such scale.

1/
I presume that this value is much greater than that of "army games", and even exceeds what can be achieved during strategic exercises.

Moreover, it might be the first exercise of such scale managed from single center (incl. aerial command posts) employing modern equipment...

2/
...and the first involving all the post-2014 new and re-established units.

What I am trying to say: politics is not the only dimension of what we are witnessing.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Feb 14
Putin meeting w/ Lavrov and Shoigu today. I expect smth like the one when Washington announced withdrawal from the INF Treaty. Should be interesting.
There will be two separate meetings. With videos and readouts, per Peskov.
Lavrov: we are not yet satisfied, but there is still room for diplomacy.

Shoigu: exercises with troops from basically all military districts are almost over or coming to an end.

Links for readouts to follow.
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Dec 16, 2021
RVSN day is on. As usual, main course is Krasnaya Zvezda interview with Commander Karakayev, and this time there are A LOT of details: redstar.ru/besspornyj-arg…

THREAD

1/
Over the next several years Sarmat and Yars "with enhanced battle capabilities" (UTTKh?) will enter service, and a development of new (!) road-mobile ICBM is in progress.

2/
New missile defense penetration aids are under development, including for the HGV-armed missile system (Avangard?).

Fundamentally new (HGV?) battle payloads to be mated with new missile systems, including solid-fuel ICBMs.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Nov 23, 2021
Somehow people seem to be very much interested in what I have to say about "Russian buildup on Ukrainian border", and future of the Ukrainian crisis.

I am not a real expert, and not an impartial observer, but anyway, a short thread might be useful.

1/
It is a hedging and a message to Kiev and its sponsors that they need to stay calm and behave. There are basically two alternatives:
1) Minsk-II, and people in Moscow seem to be ready to wait for its implementation (even w/ 'addendums' a-la Steinmeier Formula) indefinitely.

2/
2) Declaration of 'withdrawal' from Minsk-II by Kiev, and Ukrainian offensive in Donbass, which will end up in a rather swift destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces (and probably some civilian governmental infrustructure), but no Russian occupation...

3/
Read 9 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
May 25, 2021
We have a new 3-day series of defense-focused meetings held by Putin in Sochi. Today the focus is long-term development, and we learned that:
- Nuclear triad capabilities have been enhanced
- S-500 tests nearing completion
- armed forces carried out everything planned for 2020
We have a readout: kremlin.ru/events/preside…

- Kalibr-armed ships contribute to the expansion of the Navy capabilities
- Tsirkon mentioned as explicitly ship-based system, final stages of state trials
- 70+% of Air-Space Forces Air Defense rgts re-armed w/ S-400

2/
- S-500 trials are being succesfully completed, deliveries to the forces to start soon
- risks and military threats are present, so refinement. development and re-armament of the armed forces will continue
- military industry and design bureaues will receive support

3/
Read 8 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
May 24, 2021
Patrushev held talks with Sullivan in Geneva today. "Important step towards Presidential Summit".
Fun fact: Yang Jiechi is in Moscow for the 16th round of RU-CN "Strategic Security" talks tomorrow. tass.ru/politika/11451…
Official release on Patrushev-Sullivan "consultations" in Geneva today: scrf.gov.ru/news/allnews/2…
- a "logical continuation" of Lavrov-Blinken talks on May 19
- important milestone toward Presidential Summit
- "constructive", disagreements remain, but...
Read 4 tweets

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