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I’m always interested by what other great investors are buying and selling. Not to blindly copy/clone. But to source ideas or even just out of interest.

Here are some of the most interesting investments from the 13F filings from Q4 2021.
1/

Li Lu increases his position in $FB by 53%.

I’d like to think this happened after the drawdown. But the buy is from Q4 2021. Li Lu payed ~$320 per share. $FB Now trades at $220 per share. Curious to see what his next 13F looks like.
2/

Greg Alexander increases his stake in $BABA by 20%.

Alibaba has been a stock with a lot of pessimism from the market. But China bulls like Greg and Charlie Munger keep averaging down.

Munger increased his $BABA stake by 99%
3/

Terry Smith buys $GOOGL. Only a relatively small position.

Interestingly, in @AltaFoxCapital first 13F we can see that Conor Haley also owns $GOOGL. It’s the largest of all US holdings in the fund. For a renowned micro-cap investor that was surprising.
4/

Pat Dorsey buys a small-cap online marketplace $POSH.

Dorsey holds a few names that are down significantly like $WIX $FB $PYPL & $EBAY. So hopefully $POSH works out for him. I know nothing about it, but might be worth looking into.
5/

Rob Vinall buys $CVNA.

Carvana is down ~60% in the past six months. If Rob timed it at the end of December he may of payed ~$250 per share. It now trades at $142. A rough start in the position.

Will be curious to see if he increases his position next quarter.
6/

There was definitely some noteworthy moves by the ‘super investors’ in Q4. Although I think the Q1 2022 filings will be much more interesting as we have seen some turmoil in the markets.

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More from @frankinvesting

Feb 17
1/

Rob Vinall’s recent purchase of $CVNA and the huge drawdown of the share price has made me finally look into the business that every growth investor has been raving about for years now.

Carvana’s share price is down ~60% from their all-time high.
2/

Revenues for Carvana have grown at a ~112% CAGR over the past 5 years. Which is a pretty insane number, it’s hard to even comprehend.

The revenue growth is obviously unsustainable, but there is still a long runway for growth for $CVNA
3/

Currently only 1% of used car sales in the US are e-commerce sales. JP Morgan forecast that number to increase to 12% by 2030.

$CVNA have around 40% market share of e-commerce used car sales. If* they maintain that market share we could see >30% sales CAGR until 2030.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 13
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$BFIT is a low-cost provider of ~900 gyms in Europe (500 in France). They are a great case study of Nick Sleeps’ concept of ‘scale economies shared’.

Basic-Fit have a long runway of growth and if we normalise to pre-covid revenues they might be reasonably priced.
1/

I’ll start with a quick shout out to @vperelman for his podcast with @AndrewRangeley where I first heard the idea.

Additionally @1MainCapital and his commentary on $BFIT in his Q4 letter.
2/

$BFIT revenues have halved since 2019 (pre-covid) from £515m down to £247m. So important to note that a big assumption in the Basic-Fit thesis is a return to pre-covid numbers. Which I think is a reasonable assumption to make.
Read 12 tweets
Feb 5
Thread/

$TME Tencent Music & Entertainment is the $SPOT of China with double the Monthly Active Users (MAUs), higher margins and a cheaper valuation.

$TME have 841m MAUs (636m music streaming) in comparison to Spotify’s 381m MAUs.

$TCEHY owns ~51% of $TME
1/

However $SPOT have more paying users. 180m vs. 71m premium subscriptions.

Only ~10% of $TME MAUs pay for music streaming. That % has doubled since 2019. But is well below the global average of 45%.

Potentially a large runway for $TME if they can convert a larger %
2/

$TME business operations also include live karaoke (>200m MAUs), live concerts, long-form audio and live streaming.

Operations are somewhat different to $SPOT currently but both are exploring similar avenues for monetisation.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 29
Thread/

Is Netflix cheap?

@BillAckman seems to think so, making a $1.1 Billion investment recently.

$NFLX is down ~36% YTD (19 trading days). Their market value is now $170 Billion.
1/

$NFLX stock was down ~20% in one day, after management warned subscriber growth would slow down significantly for the beginning of 2022.

Overall guidance was pessimistic and below analyst expectations.
2/

In a nutshell, the future value for $NFLX relies upon:

- Continuing to be dominant leaders in SVOD market (currently about double $DIS in subscribers).

- Expanding margins as less content spend is required to maintain & grow subscriber base.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 28
Thread/

A $90m micro-cap, capital-light compounder $PDEX

Pro-Dex manufactures autoclavable, battery-powered, and electric multi-function surgical drivers and shavers used primarily in the orthopedic, thoracic, and maxocranial facial markets.
1/

Probably a difficult one to put in my 'circle of competence' but might be worth trying.

Larger customers contract $PDEX rather than building in-house. Pro-Dex saves them the hassle of getting FDA approval and the risk of wasting time and capital.
2/

Customer concentration is probably the biggest risk and the chance of any major customer developing in-house is definitely a threat.

$PDEX have recently doubled their R&D and lowering margins from 20% down to 11%. Recently increased manufacturing ability with a new building
Read 8 tweets
Jan 27
1/

Valuation for $TCEHY 40% stake it #EpicGames

Tencent acquired a 40% stake in Epic Games back in 2012. Well before #Fortnite became one of the most popular games of all-time
2/

Epic Games is still a private company so it is difficult to assign a valuation.

A group of Australian investors acquired a small stake at a US$42 Billion valuation in November 2021.
3/

The investors told reporters they had paid 8.3x TTM revenues.

They also said that according to material shown to them, they paid 6-8x NTM sales. This gives us an insight into revenue and expected growth for Epic Games.
Read 9 tweets

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