Share this page!

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Twitter logo
Feb 16 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
📉 European natural gas prices fall to 3-month low 📉

💰 TTF futures have tumbled 60% from last year's record high to 64.5 euros/MWh
🇷🇺 Risk premium drops as Putin seeks diplomatic solution with US over Ukraine
👀 Russia says some troops return to base

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Warmer-than-normal temperatures and strong wind power output are also putting pressure on European gas prices

Don't forget: European gas prices are still really high

Dutch TTF gas futures are 3-times the 10-year normal

Here is a 2-year view of the March 2022 contract via ICE
Milder temperatures and a jump in LNG deliveries means that Europe's inventories are within the historic range

They were languishing at a seasonal low for the last few months, and there were fears they could run dangerously low if cold weather hit

“Europe now on 'safe side' for gas supplies this winter”
UPDATE: European natural gas prices have recovered about 8% since my first tweet

Market is still relatively tight, and Russian flows are weak. Asian importers are snatching up spot shipments of LNG for March and April, leaving less supply for Europe
A quick summary of the European natural gas market over the last few months

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Stephen Stapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 17
Woodside's new climate plan triggers criticism for not properly addressing its carbon footprint 🇦🇺

Australia's top LNG exporter didn't set reduction goals for scope 3 emissions, which are generated by its customers & make up most of Woodside's pollution

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Woodside aims for net-zero emissions from equity in its projects -- known as Scope 1 and 2 -- by 2050

🏭 Woodside’s Scope 1 and 2 emissions from project equity were 3.2 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2021
🏭 Scope 3 emissions were almost 12 times more, at 37.2 million tons.
While Woodside hasn’t set a firm target for Scope 3 emissions, the countries where its products are sold have the same net-zero commitments, said CEO O’Neill

The fuel that Woodside sells primarily goes to Japan, S Korea and China, which all have mid-century net-zero goals
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 17
Pakistan’s natural gas supply crunch rages on 🇵🇰

ENI and Gunvor won’t deliver LNG scheduled for March to Pakistan, News says. That’s on top of several cargoes canceled since Nov.

To make matters worse, spot LNG prices are still prohibitively expensive

thenews.com.pk/print/934321-n…
Pakistan’s government plans to take legal action against ENI and Gunvor, the News says
Part of the issue appears to stem from the contracts, which allows suppliers to pay a 30% penalty to cancel an LNG shipment

Suppliers could then potentially make up the loss by just selling the shipment into the very expensive spot market Image
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 15
Russia’s Defense Ministry announced the start of a pullback of some forces after drills that raised US and European alarm about a possible military assault on Ukraine 🇷🇺

🛢️ Brent oil slips below $95/bbl
📉 European natural gas falls as much as 6%

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Russian defence minister released footage of military loading up equipment to return

Video shows the joint drills with Belarus wrapping up, according to RT
Brent crude oil futures drops below $94/bbl as traders weigh a possible cooling in Ukrainian crisis

#OOTT
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 14
European natural gas prices surge as tension over Ukraine stokes supply concerns 📈📈

Dutch TTF futures jump as much as 14%

The US said Russia may attack Ukraine as soon as this week. Russia (Europe's top gas supplier) has denied it plans to invade

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
An escalation risks worsening Europe’s energy crunch

Russia is Europe’s top source of natural gas, with about a third of its exports flowing through Ukraine

And Europe’s storage facilities are already running low, with prices four times higher than normal for this time of year
Russia is also a major supplier of oil, and the tension is boosting crude prices 🛢️

Read 6 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 12
Oil is approaching $100 (!) as tensions between Ukraine & Russia heightens concern about tight global supplies 📈🛢️

The US said it thinks Russia could take military action against Ukraine as early as next week. Russia has denied it plans to invade

#OOTT

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
As tensions escalate, President Joe Biden and Putin will speak on Saturday, according to U.S. and Russian officials. The call will take place Saturday morning

Here is a preview of those discussions:

Higher oil prices are bound to boost LNG import costs for utilities and increase electricity rates💰

Most long-term LNG contracts are linked to crude

With Brent at $95/bbl, that means an LNG cargo is roughly $11-12/mmbtu. While that’s cheaper than spot LNG, it’s still pricey
Read 8 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 9
Japan solidified a plan to divert LNG to Europe on Ukraine tension, NHK says 🇯🇵

🚢 Japan to seek cooperation from its firms that have stakes in LNG export plants (after ensuring enough domestic supply)
🚢 Still determining volume/timing

H/T @shoko_oda

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2022…
US officials asked Asian countries to ship their natural gas to Europe as the region grapples with a shortage

There are concerns that Europe may run short of energy should Russia invade Ukraine, an attack Putin has repeatedly denied he’s planning

While it’s still unlikely that Russia will cut supplies to Europe, its biggest customer, the continent would require far more than diverted LNG cargoes from Japan to make up the loss

Russia exported more than 1 and a half times Japan’s LNG imports to Europe and Turkey last year
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @SStapczynski has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @SStapczynski!

Read all threads by @SStapczynski

:(