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Feb 15 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Russia’s Defense Ministry announced the start of a pullback of some forces after drills that raised US and European alarm about a possible military assault on Ukraine 🇷🇺

🛢️ Brent oil slips below $95/bbl
📉 European natural gas falls as much as 6%

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Russian defence minister released footage of military loading up equipment to return

Video shows the joint drills with Belarus wrapping up, according to RT
Brent crude oil futures drops below $94/bbl as traders weigh a possible cooling in Ukrainian crisis

#OOTT
Benchmark European gas prices fall as much as 10% 📉

The market has responded to every change of tone in the talks between Russia and the West over Ukraine

That's because Russia is Europe's top supplier of natural gas and inventories are low

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
European natural gas futures fall 12% to the lowest level in over six weeks
📉📉📉

Russia is ready to continue sending its natural gas to Europe via Ukraine after 2024, when current transit contract expires, Putin told reporters on Tuesday.

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 16
📉 European natural gas prices fall to 3-month low 📉

💰 TTF futures have tumbled 60% from last year's record high to 64.5 euros/MWh
🇷🇺 Risk premium drops as Putin seeks diplomatic solution with US over Ukraine
👀 Russia says some troops return to base

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
Warmer-than-normal temperatures and strong wind power output are also putting pressure on European gas prices

Don't forget: European gas prices are still really high

Dutch TTF gas futures are 3-times the 10-year normal

Here is a 2-year view of the March 2022 contract via ICE Image
Read 7 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 14
European natural gas prices surge as tension over Ukraine stokes supply concerns 📈📈

Dutch TTF futures jump as much as 14%

The US said Russia may attack Ukraine as soon as this week. Russia (Europe's top gas supplier) has denied it plans to invade

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
An escalation risks worsening Europe’s energy crunch

Russia is Europe’s top source of natural gas, with about a third of its exports flowing through Ukraine

And Europe’s storage facilities are already running low, with prices four times higher than normal for this time of year
Russia is also a major supplier of oil, and the tension is boosting crude prices 🛢️

Read 6 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 12
Oil is approaching $100 (!) as tensions between Ukraine & Russia heightens concern about tight global supplies 📈🛢️

The US said it thinks Russia could take military action against Ukraine as early as next week. Russia has denied it plans to invade

#OOTT

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
As tensions escalate, President Joe Biden and Putin will speak on Saturday, according to U.S. and Russian officials. The call will take place Saturday morning

Here is a preview of those discussions:

Higher oil prices are bound to boost LNG import costs for utilities and increase electricity rates💰

Most long-term LNG contracts are linked to crude

With Brent at $95/bbl, that means an LNG cargo is roughly $11-12/mmbtu. While that’s cheaper than spot LNG, it’s still pricey
Read 8 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 9
Japan solidified a plan to divert LNG to Europe on Ukraine tension, NHK says 🇯🇵

🚢 Japan to seek cooperation from its firms that have stakes in LNG export plants (after ensuring enough domestic supply)
🚢 Still determining volume/timing

H/T @shoko_oda

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2022…
US officials asked Asian countries to ship their natural gas to Europe as the region grapples with a shortage

There are concerns that Europe may run short of energy should Russia invade Ukraine, an attack Putin has repeatedly denied he’s planning

While it’s still unlikely that Russia will cut supplies to Europe, its biggest customer, the continent would require far more than diverted LNG cargoes from Japan to make up the loss

Russia exported more than 1 and a half times Japan’s LNG imports to Europe and Turkey last year
Read 9 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 8
The latest US LNG export terminal is preparing to load its first cargo 🇺🇸

🚢The Yiannis vessel arrived at Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana
🚢Facility began producing LNG last month, which will cement the US as the world's top exporter

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Great reporting from @SergioChapa on this. He actually went to the LNG plant to take pictures of the vessel and confirm its arrival
Calcasieu Pass holds long-term supply deals with nine international buyers but will be able to sell cargoes made during its months-long startup process on the spot market

Those cargoes will most likely be sold to ease an unprecedented energy crisis in Europe
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 5
Qatar is upset that Japan isn’t renewing its LNG contracts
🇶🇦💥🇯🇵

🥊 “You’ll get no sympathy from us the next time you need LNG,” a Qatar official said to Japan in Dec
🥊 Jera let a giant 25-year contract with Qatar lapse last year

Great Nikkei report

nikkei.com/article/DGXZQO…
Qatar became the world’s top LNG supplier thanks largely to Japan

The first Qatar shipment to Japan was delivered to Chubu Electric (one of the owners of Jera) in 1997

But now Japan wants to diversify supply, and requires flexible contracts. That means lower volumes from Qatar
When the Fukushima nuclear plant suffered a meltdown in 2011, Qatar sent more LNG to Japan to make sure it had enough fuel to keep the lights on

Qatar may not be so willing to help next time

“I don’t even want to go to Tokyo,” where Jera’s HQ is located, said the Qatar official
Read 7 tweets

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