Thread by @andreasmoun

Hong Kongers’ concerns over Zero-Covid policy, #Beijing tells HK to implement

Frustration is writ large on the faces of Hong Kongers following the imposition of zero covid policy in the global financial hub on Thursday (Feb 10) in view of growing number of infections.

The zero covid policy which aims to totally stamp out outbreaks is a gigantic task and cannot be achieved under any circumstances. The policy is in line with Beijing’s zero covid policy.

Some people said that zero cases will mean everyone’s wallet will become empty because a lot of people will be out of work and have no income. After February 24, the administration will roll out vaccine pass and allow only vaccinated people

to go to supermarkets and shopping malls. . Hong King’s decision to implement China like zero-Covid policy is likely to have serious consequences ranging from economic disruption to unemployment and extra burden on medical facilities.

Health Experts say that zero covid policy leaves enough space for under-reporting of cases and putting an additional burden on over-stretched hospital and quarantine facilities.

Hong Kong's stubborn pursuit of zero COVID infections has added burden to already over stretched hospitals and quarantine facilities nearly to their limit in the global financial hub, raising the near-term prospect of changes to admissions and isolation policies.

Interestingly, two government experts Professor Gabriel Leung, Dean of Medicine, and Professor Yuen Kwok-yung appear to have realised the disadvantage of zero covid policy. Both seem to have suggested that there is a need to focus the strategy on preventing deaths.

Though these Professors stopped short of making a formal call to change the current policy, it would make good sense to refocus the strategy on how to achieve zero or near-zero deaths instead of zero infections.

An editorial in the standard.com stated that zero or near zero are impossible missions as a number of people have already died and the SAR is being hit by hundreds of cases each day.Hong Kong University microbiologist

Yuen has suggested that patients with no - or merely mild - symptoms should self-isolate at home. If they have family members who are considered high risk, such as unvaccinated elderly or the chronically ill, these family members may be temporarily relocated to central

facilities to protect them from cross-infection. Yuen’s logic has merits but real danger is that, once an outbreak occurs at these central facilities, they could easily turn into death camps since no bubble is 100 percent secure.

Professor Gabriel Leung, Dean of HKU's medical school suggested placing the entire city under lockdown for two to three months in order to greatly reduce the potential for deaths.Leung's team estimated that more than 900 people could die at the end of June if the current

situation persists. According to the team, a citywide lockdown of long-enough duration could reduce the death toll to about 115. Would it be too radical to lock down the city completely for two to three months.

However, it is clear from both suggestions that a new policy objective should be set on how to lower deaths rather than adhering to the unrealistic aim of zero infections.

The Honk Kong administration should look into the suggestions made by distinguished Professors which are worth considering.

As per strict guidelines measures, there is a limit on public gatherings to two people and private ones to members of only two households. Places of worship, hair salons and other businesses were ordered to close.

Such measures are part of Hong Kong's effort to align itself with mainland China's “zero-COVID” policy.Ironically, this approach is different from others as several countries have shifted their approach to living with the virus.

Several expert groups have confirmed that China’s zero covid policy which looked incredibly successful in 2020 appears to have limited effectiveness. US based consultancy Eurasia Group stated that China’s zero-Covid policy ranks among the top risks for 2022.

The Eurasia Group said thatthe approach “looked incredibly successful in 2020,” it has now “become a fight against a much more transmissible variant with broader lockdowns and vaccines with limited effectiveness.

Sticking with the strict measures also could lead to more economic disruption, it added.

The report clearly stated that China’s policy will fail to contain infections, leading to larger outbreaks, requiring in turn more severe lockdowns. This will in turn lead to greater economic disruptions, more state intervention.

Can Hong Kong reverseits policy? The former British colonycannot take any decision to discontinue the policy without the consent of Beijing. Unfortunately, China has been tightening its control, preventing people from raising voices and curtailing free speech.

It had imposed a sweeping National Security Law in June 2020 following anti government protests in 2019. Several opposition leaders were sent to jail. There were some who were forced to leave the country.

Given the circumstances, Beijing is unlikely to allow Hong Kong to open its borders to the mainland unless the city reaches and maintains zero-covid. Beijing official and Chinese state media have already warned

Hong Kong to follow the policy in letter and spiritsaying that adopting a “living with the virus” policy would overwhelm its medical systems.