Thread by @AndrewPRLevi

Russia, Europe & global security

I’ve asked around, so you don’t have to. Or worry about the steaming piles of ordure presented as insight by much of the British press.

Private & uncensored, from EU sources with long experience of the highest levels of government.

A 🧵/1.

Russia is run by small gang of people. And they own it. Literally. They’re not a government in any sense we’d recognise. Not even one like Trump’s horrific farce. And certainly no legitimate one. But they have nuclear weapons & a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. /2.

They don’t function - or think - anything like we’re used to. They have to survive. Physically. As individuals. As a narrow clique. That’s their absolute, overriding need. To survive they need massive wealth & they have to escalate. That’s what’s been happening for 20 years. /3.

The supposedly announced Russian “withdrawal” from the Ukrainian border is a ridiculous deception.

Think back to the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. At that time, too, manoeuvres had been declared over weeks earlier, but the troops were left in the staging areas. /4.

The same pattern was repeated before the invasion of South Ossetia & Georgia in 2008.

It’s all so pathetically transparent. But from the Russian point of view, these are successful models. /5.

The Americans speak of the possibility of “false flag operations”. /6.

To expose Putin for who he really is it might be more effective to remind everyone of 31 August 1939 & the purported Polish “attack on the Gleiwitz transmitter” just inside Germany. Faked by the SS as part of the Nazi “Operation Himmler” to pretend justification for war. /7.

What did Hitler say at the time? “Since 5.45 am we have been returning fire”. That might as well have been Putin. It is Putin. It’s what we’re now facing in Europe. Him & his gang. And their useful idiots. And collaborators. We all need to act accordingly. /8.

The naivety & cynicism displayed by so many in the West is painful. And acutely dangerous. Germany has struggled with its position on Russia over the years, & now with the current Putin-created Ukraine crisis. But that’s nothing compared to the British Brexit fools. /9.

Their contemptible stupidity & self-indulgence - where it isn’t outright, deliberate treachery - is wrecking the United Kingdom, weakening European security, & helping Putin’s klepto-oligarchic mafia. Respect for Britain is over. It won’t return for a generation. /10.

And it’ll have to be hard-earned. If there even is a Britain much longer. Anyway, all their scurrying around trying to appear important is just a distraction. As Biden & Blinken have rightly made clear, in the Euro-Atlantic this is now about US & EU making common cause. /11.

It’s European, for obvious reasons. And it’s global. We’re 40% of the world’s economy & half its defence spend. With our serious allies, like Japan & Canada, quite a bit more than that. Ukraine is making clear the days of stupid in the West are over. Or else we all are. /12.

If the US goes off piste again, we’re probably all sunk. Including the US itself. So, anything & everything we can do to ensure Americans, Europeans & others understand that & take the necessary action - that’s our absolute highest strategic priority. /13.

This isn’t all “just” about our freedoms & prosperity. We want those. We like them. But we also need them, or we’ll never be able to deal with the catastrophic global risks we face. /14.

You think Putin, Xi, Orban, Bolsonaro, Johnson are going to be the world’s fairy godmothers?

Donnez nous un break. (I added that bit).

Don’t shoot the messenger.

Thanks. /15. End

Quite a few replies (almost all polite, thank you!) asking what the US & allies should do.

A big question, going way beyond Ukraine & indeed Russia.

Much to say.

For now, for anyone with time for a cup of tea, I recommend @philipstephens’ latest, as a good starting point👇

https://twitter.com/philipstephens/status/1494631406718357518