A fundamental driver of what’s happening in Russia, & has been for decades now, is the dynamic which overtakes all klepto-oligarchic leaders.
The theft, brutality & distractions have to escalate.
Why? /1.
The theft, brutality & distractions have to escalate.
Why? /1.
Because with every act of grand larceny, every brutal murder & massacre, you create more reasons for more people to take revenge.
So you need more (stolen) resources, to protect yourself.
It’s very, very expensive.
Unimaginably so, to any normal person. /2.
So you need more (stolen) resources, to protect yourself.
It’s very, very expensive.
Unimaginably so, to any normal person. /2.
You need more brutality to suppress & snuff out potential vengeance.
More performative acts, to draw attention away from (or, from time to time, toward) what you’re doing.
Plus, of course, there’s the off-the-scale megalomania & untrammelled greed. /3.
More performative acts, to draw attention away from (or, from time to time, toward) what you’re doing.
Plus, of course, there’s the off-the-scale megalomania & untrammelled greed. /3.
There comes a point in the escalation when you run out of resources you can more or less safely steal & distractions you can more or less credibly arrange.
You need new opportunities. New territory. /4.
You need new opportunities. New territory. /4.
Valuable commodities from which you can personally appropriate massive rents.
A new theatre, in which to stage dramatic performances to dominate attention.
A tank battle.
A bombing campaign.
A heroic infantry victory.
A terrorist bloodbath.
All can work very nicely. /5.
A new theatre, in which to stage dramatic performances to dominate attention.
A tank battle.
A bombing campaign.
A heroic infantry victory.
A terrorist bloodbath.
All can work very nicely. /5.
Also, successful neighbours show you up & tend to destabilise you domestically.
So you have a strong incentive to destabilise & damage them.
If necessary by forcible takeover.
Naturally, there can be major costs & risks in trying to do so. /6.
So you have a strong incentive to destabilise & damage them.
If necessary by forcible takeover.
Naturally, there can be major costs & risks in trying to do so. /6.
You have to choose your timing & tactics carefully.
There again, if you’re a klepto-oligarchic leader you’re also a paranoid psychopath.
No, there aren’t any exceptions to that. /7.
There again, if you’re a klepto-oligarchic leader you’re also a paranoid psychopath.
No, there aren’t any exceptions to that. /7.
What would a paranoid psychopath do?
Prepare spreadsheets & strategic plans? Maybe.
Stick to them, adapting according to evolving circumstances, employing rational, mature logic & empathy?
You know the answer to that. /8.
Prepare spreadsheets & strategic plans? Maybe.
Stick to them, adapting according to evolving circumstances, employing rational, mature logic & empathy?
You know the answer to that. /8.
Which is helpful.
If, that is, it’s important to you to see, through a realistic lens, what’s happening to European & global security right now.
In the midst of an acutely dangerous crisis.
Entirely manufactured by Vladimir Putin & his helpers. /9. End
If, that is, it’s important to you to see, through a realistic lens, what’s happening to European & global security right now.
In the midst of an acutely dangerous crisis.
Entirely manufactured by Vladimir Putin & his helpers. /9. End
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