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David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Feb 18 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
I realise this government is uniquely brilliant / evil, but this looks remarkably similar to UK government policy since the days of TTIP, since these won't be trade deals as in the rather dated tariff reduction, but more likely cooperation of various sorts.
Deals with US states are in no sense multi-billion, but I'm sure for example that animal welfare groups would be only too happy for the UK to adopt California's rules... to note though, US states are happy to talk, but rather less to do anything that meaningful internationally
Anyway, its good the UK government attempts to build up cooperation across the globe, all part of the steady trade diplomacy every developed country does. In fact it should probably be higher priority, as part of an overall trade strategy. Not just US states. And no overselling.
(can't help thinking that the last thing the Department for International Trade wants is for me to tweet support for what they're doing, and add that it won't be worth much though...)

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 16
Between real scandals and fantasy boosterism we don't have much space for normal politics, as in finding solutions to societal problems. Such as, just on today's news, housing, birth rates, inflation.

That's the real cost of electing a PM because he's fun or some such.
Social care remains the classic example. Claimed by the PM to be 'solved' on the basis of a hurried vote in Parliament on a boost to National Insurance, without any suggestion the supporting detail was actually in place. Debate reduced, issue still as large as it was.
The Johnson style in PMQs, to read out lists of achievements real or imaginary, diminishes politics weekly. You would hope that at some point Labour takes this on, but I'm unconvinced they will, in fear of 'talking Britain down'.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 15
Really good @adampayne26 piece on UK supply chains and supermarkets in particular. What I take from this is retailers choosing to reduce choice (and contribute to price rises) to try to avoid the worst disruptions arising from Brexit trade barrier. politicshome.com/thehouse/artic…
@adampayne26 UK supermarkets and supply chain professionals have an excellent reputation for efficiency, and that seems to have led to logical decisions, if short of drivers due to labour shortages, or goods harder to import, do less of it. Also proving classic trade theory right.
For the UK as a whole the impact of high trade barriers to nearby markets was always likely to be a loss of competitiveness, with knock-on consequences potentially to exports globally. Brexit is protectionist in effect if not in the minds of plenty of proponents.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 8
New paper alert! On the vexed subject of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Quite simply it does not look like the right vehicle to resolve political disagreement between the UK and EU. We need a new approach, that builds on and takes inspiration from 1998.

ecipe.org/publications/f…
This is not going to be a comfortable message for either UK or EU, but what we have right now is in effect a zero-sum game, where either UK or EU single markets get to be protected. Northern Ireland becomes the venue as contested territory, too much for a fragile polity. 2/
The Northern Ireland Protocol is a trade agreement. But without a shared political vision, the argument over medicines or SPS checks becomes political. It also becomes about identity, given the 1998 agreement allowed an ambiguity over being British or Irish. 3/
Read 11 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 8
For some around the UK government, the initial point of joining the CPTPP was to use it to weaken UK food rules (particularly attractive to those being paid by US farm lobbies) as a US trade deal might be too controversial. politico.eu/article/canada…
Of course the UK government has long denied that it plans to weaken food laws. But it has also resisted a veterinary equivalence agreement with the EU which would make such weakening much more difficult. From which we can draw an obvious conclusion - this promise may be dropped.
Which is also interesting timing for another clash between House of Parliament committees and the government on the level scrutiny treaties receive. "far short of the European Parliament’s powers" as this article from @AlexanderHorne1 says prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/treat…
Read 9 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 7
With @AnnaGuildea @ecipe I have a new short paper on specialisation and comparative advantage as part of our New Globalization project. We show that developed countries still produce a wide range of goods and services - but specialise in complexity.

ecipe.org/publications/c…
@AnnaGuildea @ECIPE What we are really exploring is the idea that the EU, US, UK are increasingly vulnerable due to the rise of other countries, in particular China. The evidence for this remains slim - we may not make everything, but we hold the knowledge, and can trade. ecipe.org/publications/c…
It is part of our continuing work to show global trade has actually delivered, rather than being a failure to be corrected. As we have shown with other papers such as this on the response to the pandemic. Not perfect, but better than suggested alternatives ecipe.org/publications/g…
Read 4 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 2
A new phase in difficulties over the Northern Ireland protocol in which a DUP Stormont minister instructs his officials to stop enforcing an international treaty. Impossible to know what happens next, if these continue or not, or how the EU responds. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…
As we can see from events in Russia / Ukraine, there is no enforcement power in international law if one party decides to breach treaties. However, we also know that it is normally the larger powers that have more scope for breach than smaller ones.
Expect a strong reaction from the US and the EU if the UK fails to enforce the Northern Ireland protocol. At a time when the US wishes to focus attention on Russia / Ukraine, such a move would not be seen in a positive light. (see e.g. Suez / Hungary)
Read 31 tweets

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