Senior EU diplomat: #IranTalks "I expect an agreement very soon. Ideally yes, I expect an agreement in the coming week or ***coming two weeks or so***." -1-
"Most of the issues are already agreed. But as a principle in this kind of negotiations, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. So we still have...some questions, some of them rather political and difficult to agree." -2-
"Over the last 2 weeks, delegations have shown a lot of political will. It's clear that they want a compromise. It's clear that all delegations around the table -and that which is not around the table but it's around the corner, the United States - it also wants an agreement."-3-
"I think we have now on the table text that are very very close to what is going to be the final agreement. But I don't, I really don't know whether that will happen in the coming days or that will take a bit more. But in any case, not much more." -4-
"On the ground they are advancing very much at a speed that is not compatible with the long term survival of the JCPOA," says senior EU diplo of Iran nuclear work. -5-
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JUST RAN: The Biden administration expects a restored nuclear deal would leave Iran capable of amassing enough nuclear fuel for a bomb in significantly less than a year, U.S. officials familiar with the matter said. wsj.com/articles/u-s-s…
Biden administration officials discussed Break-out time scenarios last fall and concluded that re-creating the 12 month breakout time that underpinned the 2015 deal was unrealistic. Concluded it would be “significantly lower.” -2-
Lower breakout time estimates (& yes, these will always be estimates), will raise new questions about strength of a restored deal and the US aim for a future longer, stronger deal. Some in U.S., Israel voiced worries that a restored deal would give Iran a more for less deal. -3-
This issue is not complicated. "In 1935, the Nuremberg laws, which among other things outlawed marriages between Jews and other Germans, were passed. These were then amended to include black people and Roma in the same category as Jews." bbc.com/news/world-afr… -1-
"But a fear of racial mixing persisted and in 1937 the mixed-race children from the Rhineland were targeted for forced sterilisation...Though their experiences differed, all black Germans were subjected to persecution under Nazi rule."
Alternative source. encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/art… "Did the Nuremberg Laws apply to other groups? Yes. While initially focused on Jews, the Nazi government clarified that the Nuremberg Laws also applied to Roma View This Term in the Glossary (also called Gypsies), Black people," -3-
Some thoughts on #IranTalks and the issue of guarantees. I've had a few days to speak to western sources to get their take on the role disagreement over guarantees that the U.S. not again withdraw from JCPOA played in stalling Vienna talks.-1-
First, an acknowledgement that different sources always have slightly different takes and perceptions and the caveat that since the Iranians wouldn't speak to the U.S. directly, some misunderstandings of each other's positions and expectations was inevitable. -2-
Second, my understanding is that the central factual claim made by @tparsi -- that Iran lowered its demand from insisting on a permanent guarantee that the U.S. not exit the JCPOA to insisting on a legal guarantee that the Biden administration not exit the deal -- is correct. -3-
Just ran: There have been several incidents in recent months where male security guards at Natanz, #Iran have physically harassed female IAEA inspectors, including inappropriate touching and instructing them to remove clothes, diplomats say. -1-wsj.com/articles/irani…
The @iaeaorg has not formally reported the incidents to its Board despite some pushing them to do so. In a statement, @iaeaorg confirmed incidents without detailing them and said that after warnings, Iran has stopped. -2-
Yet we report the most recent incident was in recent weeks and the U.S. on Monday circulated a non-paper to other members, calling on partner countries to raise the issue at @iaeaorg Board and call on Iran to stop immediately. -3-
Interestingly, @rafaelmgrossi says today something he didn't make clear last night. "I did not receive any promise" from Iran authorities to address safeguards probe. "I was not seeking, in this trip, promises….I need to have a clear conversation with the new government" -1-
about this…I need to sit down with them, how I see the whole picture, and tell also what I expect from them and hear from them as well," @rafaelmgrossi says. He says he hopes to do this at forthcoming Tehran trip. -2-
@rafaelmgrossi Seems to contradict joint statement which talked about "enhancing cooperation between Iran and the IAEA in different fields and discussing issues of material interest." -3-
The online enrichment mechanisms in Iran are still in place, @rafaelmgrossi confirms in answer to @virtualnomad
On censure resolution, @rafaelmgrossi notes that nowhere in the joint statement over weekend was it stated that the agreement with Iran on access was predicated on the absence of a censure resolution this week. (even though we all know de facto it was). -2-
@rafaelmgrossi .@rafaelmgrossi confirms that, as was pretty clear, IAEA has current access to plenty of footage at Natanz and Fordow. He says they go there "as often as is required." We have the number of cameras "that we need." Ie the lack of access was only for nuclear-related sites in JCPOA