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Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
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Feb 18 • 3 tweets • 1 min read
#Russia_Ukraine: Several scenarios are executed at the same time by Moscow: 1) Forcing Kyiv to enter the separatist regions through activating contact line shelling from Russian-controlled regions to justify aggression to protect the Russian-speaking population;⤵️
2) (Dis)informative activity pushing "genocide" + "refugee" narratives in order to activate a "Kosovo scenario" of recognition, if necessary to push special status for breakaway regions; and,⤵️
3) Using the destabilization of Ukraine to pressurize the West to accept a NATO “non-membership” for Ukraine (and Georgia) to avoid a current or/future war with Russia. Other scenarios seem to be of secondary relevance.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Feb 18
#Ukraine: The separatist territories announced the evacuation of the population of the localities from the contact. They claim that Zelensky would like to enter the territories. Such a scenario is completely rejected by Kyiv. Meanwhile, Putin is urging talks between⤵️
Kyiv and separatists (the Minsk Agreements). Women, children and the elderly will be transported to Russia, while the male population is expected to be conscripted. These are signs that Russia’s aggression has more ground to materialize. The provocation can start right in Donbas.
The Secretary of National Security and Defense, Danilov, declared that Russia tries to force the constitutional authorities to enter the separatist regions. Kyiv rules out any incursion. The Ukrainian side will apply military force only for self-defense.
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Feb 17
#Ukraine: Zelensky called for "security guarantees" for Ukraine to which he would commit both the US and Russia. At the same time, he demands from NATO guarantees similar to those available to member states, without clarifying whether he is referring to a “collective⤵️
defensive clause” or something else. Regardless, Zelensky rejected the idea of hosting NATO military bases. Despite the solidarity shown by most NATO members, Zelensky rushes to underline again the reluctance of some unnamed countries (probably France or Germany, or both)⤵️
towards Ukraine's membership. The fundamental contradiction between Ukraine and Russia is impossible to overcome. On the one hand, Russia's “security guarantees” are incompatible with Ukraine's sovereignty. On the other hand, the fulfillment of Kyiv's existential security need⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Feb 16
#Russia_Ukraine: It is not clear what Russia's exact goal is in triggering the issue of recognition of breakaway territories. One explanation may be that Russia is using the "recognition" story to pressure Kyiv to implement the Minsk Agreements. This makes even more sense⤵️
after both Macron and Scholz discussed this with Zelensky. The fact that Putin rejected the idea of ​​recognition so quickly could be the result of an orchestrated move from the Duma side to improve Putin's image as a more pragmatic political actor in the eyes of the West.⤵️
Another intention probably lies in distracting attention or creating more confusion around the military buildup. This last one began to be questioned before the recent appearances of withdrawing some elements of the military buildup. In any case, neither aggression nor⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Feb 14
#Russia: On February 15, the Duma will vote on two bills, both related to the recognition of breakaway territories in Ukraine. If the communist-drafted initiative wins, the decree will go directly to Putin. Otherwise, the United Russia proposal will be considered. In this case⤵️
, the document will be distributed to other institutions, including the MFA, before landing on Putin's desk. The fact that the vote is on February 15 could raise concerns that certain operations on the border and in Donbas could start as early as February 16. As I mentioned⤵️
earlier, Russia is using the argument that increased military capacity would threaten the security of Russian citizens in the breakaway territories of Donbass. This is an argument reminiscent of the narrative surrounding the recognition of Kosovo's independence,⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Jan 2
#France: Paris assumed the presidency of the EU Council. There was a scandal over the use of the EU flag by far-right politicians Le Pen and Zemmur. Here are some useful data on the priorities of the French Presidency of the EU called “Relaunch, power and sense of belonging:⤵️
1) It is guided by three main priorities: a. A more sovereign Europe (better Schengen, better protection of external borders; more capable in terms of defense and security, acting for the stability and prosperity of the neighborhood, etc.); B. A new European growth model⤵️
(combining economic development with climate protection, etc.); C. A humane Europe (responding to the concerns of EU citizens, etc.); 2) The French presidency is complementary to that of the Czech Republic and Sweden, with which it forms the presidency of the “Trio” until⤵️
Read 7 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 29, 2021
#Belarus: Lukashenko made a number of disturbing statements that encompass flagrant disinformation on a large scale, but I want to underline some of them: 1) He acknowledged that in the event of a military conflict on the Ukraine-Russia border, Belarus will fight on the⤵️
Russian side ; 2) Next, he instructed Defense Minister Hrenov to develop action plans to mobilize the army ensuring that this is necessary to counter threats on both the western and southern borders (NATO members and Ukraine); 3) Furthermore, Lukashenko directed at “them”⤵️
(West/Poland) the accusations of committing homicides involving migrants, whose corpses would be dumped on the territory of Belarus (continued demonization of the EU / West); 4) As Russia has done previously (via Patrushev’s voice), Lukashenko is twisting the narrative on⤵️
Read 5 tweets

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