Thread by @maxbergmann

This is a very insightful and thoughtful thread. Let me offer one point. I think the Russia analyst community never really grappled with the significance of Russian interference in the US election. It was a clear sign Russia was content w/ a new Cold war. Thread. 1/

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1494730097269563394

It was super easy to lose the thread on what actually happened in 2016. Not just b/c it became a huge US political scandal but it also descended into a tedious legal affair. FP analysts also (understandably) wanted to stay out of that morass and focused more on disinfo. 2/

But Russia's interference was incredibly reckless. And said a lot about Putin and Russia's outlook. What they did was not small. It was blunt and effective. They hacked a US political party and leaked the contents - twice! A DNC chair resigned and dominated the Oct news cycle. 3/

Messing with a US presidential election was not something US anticipated...b/c we are America! Attacking our democracy is a BFD w/ huge consequences... Also why risk the US response when Hillary was sure to win! If she had won tensions w/d have escalated immediately. 4/

A Cold War-like environment w/d've returned. So why do it? In my view, b/c Putin believed he was already in a Cold War. He thought he was getting back at the US for 2011 and Maidan/Color revolutions. 5/

After 2014, Russia took the gloves off, pol. interference vs. West (US, France, etc), assassinations, Syria, Wagner group playing spoiler. Acted like it was a Cold War. But w/ Trump, West didn't mobilize vs. Russia. 6/

In short, Putin has been on a Cold War footing since at least 2016 and has been willing to accept the econ isolation and costs that come with a new CW. 7/

Lastly, the Senate Intel report is just a must read on how extensive the Russian intelligence effort was vs. the 2016 election. 8/ intelligence.senate.gov/press/senate-i…