On why negotiating with Putin is so difficult. From my Congressional testimony last week on "Defending U.S. Allies and Interests Against Russian Aggression in Eastern Europe." shar.es/aWQuPZ THREAD 1/
"It is hard to negotiate with an autocratic leader driven by ideological aims. Putin is worried about what the Russian history books fifty years from now will say about his efforts to reunite the Slavic nation and revise the post-Cold War order." 2/
"He is not that concerned about Sberbank stock prices next month. Putin also has been in power for over two decades. He no longer listens to advisors; he thinks he knows everything." 3/
"He also lives a rather isolated life, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, spending most of his time at his compound outside of Moscow, which creates even fewer incentives for government officials or business leaders to influence his decision-making." 4/
"And while Putin does monitor closely public opinion polls, the Russian system of government today is an autocracy." 5/
"In making his decision to invade or not, or deciding what kind of new invasion to launch – from limited airstrikes to a full-scale ground war – Putin is not worried about “saving face” before his generals or the Russian society. He can spin victory any way he desires." 6/
"Internationally, apart from Xi, Putin no longer thinks he has peers in the world. He most certainly does not care about losing the respect of President Biden or European leaders." 7/
"And he believes his aggressive, belligerent foreign policies have been successful, or not as costly to his interests as threatened by the West. This combination of factors makes him a very difficult interlocutor for President Biden." 8/
Full text of my testimony is here: shar.es/aWQuPZ 9/ END THREAD.
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