To add, "verbal commitments" mean next to nothing in diplomacy. During the New START treaty negotiations, Russians heard a verbal commitment from our side to limit missile defenses. Obama personally had to walk it back. 1/ THREAD
He told Medvedev that we would never commit to that in a written agreement. I was there with him during the call. It was a very tough call. 2/
When the treaty was signed, none of these "verbal commitments" showed up in the final text. A real, credible commitment not to expand NATO would have been codified in a treaty. Or at least a joint statement. It was not. 3/
Talk is cheap. Experienced politicians & diplomats, including Gorbachev, know that. (Listen to Putin today. He has said 100 times that he not going to invade Ukraine!) 4/ END THREAD.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
On why negotiating with Putin is so difficult. From my Congressional testimony last week on "Defending U.S. Allies and Interests Against Russian Aggression in Eastern Europe." shar.es/aWQuPZ THREAD 1/
"It is hard to negotiate with an autocratic leader driven by ideological aims. Putin is worried about what the Russian history books fifty years from now will say about his efforts to reunite the Slavic nation and revise the post-Cold War order." 2/
"He is not that concerned about Sberbank stock prices next month. Putin also has been in power for over two decades. He no longer listens to advisors; he thinks he knows everything." 3/
In testimony for the US Congress this week, I outlined what I thought were Putin's aims in threatening war against Ukraine. fsi-live.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/mc… Let me summarize in a thread. 1/ THREAD
"Some political leaders, elected officials, and analysts have argued that we could end this conflict overnight by just ending NATO’s open-door policy. That analysis is wrong." 2/
"First, this argument assumes that Putin would credibly commit to a new agreement and stop threatening Ukraine’s sovereignty. Why? He already has violated numerous European treaties and agreements that Moscow signed in the past..." 3/
Lots of people in my feed recently keep referencing Professor Mearsheimer as the great explainer of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. I have some thoughts. THREAD 1/
I respect John as one of the clearest, most logical realist theorists out here. Unlike some, he also admits/understands that realism is both an explanatory theory and a normative perspective, or what Id call an ideology. (Liberalism also is a theory & an ideology.) 2/
Whenever I teach IR courses, I assign big chunks of Mearsheimer all the time (Walt too). 3/
We are all looking for signs of Putin pivoting towards negotiations, not war, because we all want to avoid war. But we should be careful about cherry-picking the tea leaves. 1/ THREAD
He told Lavrov to pursue negotiations, yes. That's good news. 2/
But Putin also called Donbas a genocide. How can Putin stand by and watch a genocide of ethnic Russians (his frame not mine)? That quip from Putin scared me. 3/
"Not without reason, Putin believes that U.S. support for democracy abroad threatens his autocratic rule." 1/ THREAD.
"During Putin’s reign, most crises in relations with the United States have been triggered not by NATO expansion, but by democratic mobilizations — Putin calls them “color revolutions” — within countries, be it Georgia in 2003, Ukraine in 2004, the Arab Spring in 2011,..." 2/
"Russia in 2011 and Ukraine in 2014. On this contentious issue, there is no deal to be had between the United States and Russia as long as Putin is in power. U.S. leaders cannot command other societies to stop wanting democracy." 3/
According to Wikipedia, 2 decades ago, "On 15 February 2003, a coordinated day of protests was held across the world in which people in more than 600 cities expressed opposition to the imminent Iraq War." 1/
"It was part of a series of protests and political events that had begun in 2002 and continued as the invasion, war, and occupation took place. The day was described by social movement researchers as "the largest protest event in human history"2/
"According to BBC News, between six and ten million people took part in protests in up to sixty countries over the weekend of 15 and 16 February." 3/