1. Though I've seen enough tanks with sun shades to credibly support that Russia will invade Ukraine, that will trigger sanctions that will destroy the Russian economy and degrade the military. Soon Russia's submarines, planes and radars will begin to fail.
2. It will be 1989 all over again. By only recognizing DNR LNR independence, he kills Minsk but it was dead already. Putin's oligarchs don't want the sanctions. They will be forced to leave the countries that support the sanctions and perhaps could stay in fringe countries
3. but the good times will be over. Putin may be powerful enough to bully these folks, but the oligarchs control the mafia and they can get to Putin. He won't risk war with them. 
4. So if Ukraine attacks Donbas, Putin may be able to say he is defending an ally not invading. We need to be clear that any incursion by Russia resulting from a crisis it started will trigger sanctions. But the Germans don't care about Donbass. We talk about the Russian
5. oligarchs in many countries but seldom in Germany. They are smart to only have infiltrated the German elite with cheap loans and other things that gives them power without being noticed. We need to make clear that any ally of Russia is an enemy of the US. @WHNSC @SecBlinken
6. That will include PRC, Iran and especially Syria where we should immediately begin to make Russia go through some things. @SecDef
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