1. I predicted Putin would bite off Donbas when his play didn't work. He already had control but now he's going to steal what ever hasn't already been stolen and extract the coal. It's theft.

Putin calls Macron and Scholtz first. I surmised they told him this was the offramp.
2. If not, I'm watching for some comment from them denouncing it. If we were not in the decision making on this there should be hell to pay.
3. If we knew they had discussed this and were not surprised by it then this joint call might make sense in a "job well-done" context. If they pitched this or discussed it and we didn't know that's entire other matter and at a min we need to know what they got for staying quiet.
4. And if that was what we need to know, the three-way call on zoom would be the perfect way to find out. It's how a prosecutor might do it when you know you'll likely only get one bite of the apple to get the story from both of them.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Feb 22
1. Congress should consider passing an emergency amendment to the Trading With the Enemy Act that gives @POTUS the power to impose the Act during times like this without going to a full declared state of war. It would allow the complete and permanent seizure of all Russian
2. national property in the US including all intellectual property. The party impacted never gets it back absent buying it from the person to whom the US custodian sells it. I have some knowledge of this power due to my my extended family having been subject to it twice in
3. WWI and WWII. Only recently have they re-acquired their US trademarks. It took over 70 years. All Russian citizens bank and stock holdings would be wiped out in a single moment. They would never get it back. That money becomes our money. Having that power will give us the
Read 5 tweets
Feb 21
1. He walks away makes a threat towards @ZelenskyyUa and thinks he'll dodge being sanctioned. If he gets away with it he nets part of #Ukraine and all of #Belarus. Official Recognition to be wrapped up. Lawyers dwell on small details while he move forces into #Donbas.
2. He many think he can bait Zelensky into attacking so he can get Germany and France to say it was not an invasion. Even if he sits still, DNR and LNR are not well-manned. Putin has to put forces in or the mob may run. We can stop it by showing the UN our SAR work product.
3. My uncle Tunk drove Jack Kennedy around western Mass when he ran for the Senate. Said he never bought a drink. My parents didn't support JFK. They were Adlai Stevenson liberals. Thought the Kennedy's were shifty. I remember Stevenson's UNSC "Till hell freezes over" moment.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 21
1. Though I've seen enough tanks with sun shades to credibly support that Russia will invade Ukraine, that will trigger sanctions that will destroy the Russian economy and degrade the military. Soon Russia's submarines, planes and radars will begin to fail.
2. It will be 1989 all over again. By only recognizing DNR LNR independence, he kills Minsk but it was dead already. Putin's oligarchs don't want the sanctions. They will be forced to leave the countries that support the sanctions and perhaps could stay in fringe countries
3. but the good times will be over. Putin may be powerful enough to bully these folks, but the oligarchs control the mafia and they can get to Putin. He won't risk war with them.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 21
1. Video posted this morning near Belgorod reservoir shows Russian tanks and other heavy fighting equipment about 8 miles from the border NE of Kharkiv. They have now installed sun shades on the tanks the lack of which I reported evidenced they were not ready to attack.
2. Thus I conclude they are prepared to attack. I'm monitoring web cams in #Karkiv. Business as normal. Brave folks. @DefenseIntel @AP #UkraineInvasion2
3. I used to observe webcams on this border during the first invasion. There is a railroad crossing that I think a possible crossing point. Here's my old map. You can see one crossing is rail and the other is vehicular. That used to have a web cam I've watched many times.
Read 5 tweets
Feb 20
1. As I have predicted all along, Putin doesn't want to attack. Macron again offers Putin an off ramp and based on Russian media reports he has apparently agreed to resume Minks Normandy format meetings. The question will be whether Zelensky will play along. He likely will.
2. A quick survey of the Russian state controlled media. From official Tass the same contrived claim of Russia being under threat.
3. Izvestia has stopped the bloodthirsty rhetoric and is also focused on talks.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 20
1. The US ISR missions continue. It's difficult to express how important our intelligence is for the outgunned Ukrainian army. The US aircraft are putting together battle field data on all Russian positions every day. Imagine it's similar to what we'd produce for our own forces.
2. We also learn. Every day we fly we get stronger and Putin gets weaker. If he attacks it will be tragic and catastrophic. First Russo-Ukrainian war had a small poorly armed Ukrainian force against the Russian army. They fought to clear large parts of Ukraine then a cease fire
3. began another Russian frozen conflict. Now, they have had the time to build a competent force and command. With top NATO weapons that they had trained on in Germany, now in their hands, Ukraine's force stands a chance of inflicting enough damage on the invading force to once
Read 12 tweets

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