After sharing his grievances with the West in his Munich speech in 2007, tonight we got #Putin‘s #Ukraine speech, which too will go down in history as a declaration of war against Ukraine and the European security order. 1/
What will happen next? After Russia‘s recognition of #LPR and #DPR as independent states, these ‘states’ will invite Russian troops to reinstate peace and stability. Moscow will gladly send these troops to protect what it sees as Russian compatriots and citizens. 2/
After years of #passportization, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens in these regions have received Russian passports. Russia’s narrative will be that it sent troops after receiving official invitations from legitimate gov'ts and to protect Russians in its Near Abroad. 3/
Reality: Illegitimate gov'ts of Ukrainian breakaway regions under control by Russia will issue a #Kremlin-prepared statement asking for Russian troops. Putin will then send these troops and occupy parts of eastern Ukraine. 4/
If #Zelensky responds militarily, Putin will frame this as a Ukrainian act of aggression and escalate further. If not, Putin will have all but incorporated parts of Ukraine into Russia at almost no cost and might consider going further anyway. 5/
This is also a vital moment for the West. Putin is once again checking our resolve. Will we react? With words or deeds? How strongly? We are at a crossroads. 6/
The next few hours and days will significantly influence the future of Ukraine, Russia, Europe and the world for the foreseeable future. But let’s not forget that real people’s lives and fates are at stake here and have been for years. 7/7
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