Thread by @PunishedRobot

thought on ukraine after spending some time driving around in silence

maybe you could frame victory conditions in the following way

1. if the war goes quickly and cleanly RU wins

2. if it's a slog RU loses; maybe UA "wins"

this is conventional wisdom. but, a third issue:

3. if the govt of RU or a major western power collapses it's victory for the other side nearly independent of how the war in UA is going

this feels under-considered to me

maybe it's not for RU, people are whispering about internal RU military dissent and public opinion. but,

it's not obvious to me that the Western powers come out unscathed, especially if there are widespread energy issues resulting from sanctions on Russia

no core Western country has had a revolution during covid, yet, but this isnt obviously sustainable imo

Canada just implemented emergency powers. the US recently had the worst protests in a generation and people are still pissed. Germany and France arent obviously stable afaict and the EU has plenty of internal problems between states coming to a head (eg Poland, Hungary)

so what happens if you jack up energy prices in the middle of winter? or if you have to eat another recession? a financial crisis?

probably most countries could weather something like this without trouble fifteen years ago but there is a lot of outstanding civic debt now

if one western government goes down the others are going to get real fucking nervous real fast, and the spirit might catch on across borders

even if NATO reversed course and staved off revolutionary contagion it would still be a massive blow to the notion we can collaborate

in conclusion while i am glad to be far from Mariupol tonight the downside risks are such that i recommend everyone stay strapped