A few thoughts on Putin, Lenin, Soviet Union and the Czars…🧵
In his speech yesterday, Putin directed a fairly large amount of hate towards Lenin for ‘creating’ the Soviet Union republics and giving them an option to quit the Union. It was quite a spectacle
And I wonder if by doing so, he is actively trying to diminish Lenin’s role in Russia’s history and, in the process, turn himself into a much more consequential historical figure in comparison
A figure that - in Putin’s eyes - has restored Russia’s glory that Lenin himself had diminished with his ‘ill-conceived’ Soviet Union constitution, which Putin believes ultimately led to its destruction
Which leads us to what is perhaps one of the most misinterpreted drivers of Putin’s ambitions. Many Russia analysts believe that he is focused on recreating the old Soviet Union
But I think it’s actually much more likely that Putin is interested in restoring (at least in part) the old Russian Empire instead
Yes, it is true that he has said on a number of occasions that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a ’genuine tragedy
But on the other hand, he has on numerous occasions harshly criticized much of the leadership of the Soviet Union - Lenin, Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev and Gorbachev - people that have led the Union for 66 out of its 69 years in existence!
And the power structure he has built in Russia does not resemble anything like the Politburo that existed in the Soviet Union days (except in the days of Stalin). He is the sole decision-maker on all issues - domestic and foreign policy. In many ways - he is the new Czar
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It's becoming very clear that in the very near future, Russia is going to achieve it's objectives of overthrowing Ukrainian government and establish a puppet regime
Let’s talk about what happens next🧵
The first thing that Russian intelligence are going to do (likely already doing) is hunting down any current members of Ukrainian government that are unlikely to switch sides and kill/capture them. They are going to eliminate all opposition to their rule in the most brutal way
Whoever they install to run the country - probably some oligarch like Medvedchuk - will call for unity and peace and proclaim himself as a savor of the country that was left in ruins by previous ‘Nazi junta'
Putin is expected to give a televised address shortly #WatchThisSpace
Likely will announce recognition of DNR and LNR per unanimous recommendation of his Security Council. Will Western leaders keep on with diplomatic efforts after such move?
Speech in progress now:
So far, a history lesson on the Soviet Union and what Lenin did or did not do 100 years ago