Putin is holding a meeting of his Security Council today. #WatchThisSpace
The meeting is being held right now. Lavrov is giving a bleak report on state of diplomatic efforts
Lavrov: European unity at #MSC2022 proved to us once again that it only makes sense for us to talk to the Americans
Putin: A moratorium on Ukraine’s membership that has allegedly been offered to him is not a concession to Russia but simply a reflection of reality that Ukraine is not ready to join NATO
Putin: Macron didn’t offer any specifics in his late night call last night (lasted till 2am) when he proposed a Biden-Putin-Macron summit
Deputy PM Kosak: Minsk talks have gone nowhere since 2015. Explicit rejection of progress of Normandy talks
Putin: Will Kyiv honor Minsk agreements?
PM Kosak: They never will
FSB Director Bortnikov: Russian forces destroyed Ukrainian forces that tried to infiltrate the border and took one Ukrainian POW
Shoigu: 90% of Donetsk has no water. 75% of Luhansk has no gas
Shoigu lists the following disposition of Ukrainian forces at Line of Control - 59k Ukrainian forces, 345 tanks, 2160 BMPs, 820 artillery pieces, 160 MLRS
Shoigu claims Zelensky has said that he wants to return Ukraine to once again become a nuclear state (Ed: It never was. Never had operational control over the weapons)
Putin: We need to answer the question from Duma regarding recognition of DNR and LN
Medvedev: Ukraine doesn’t want the Donbas
Medvedev: Zelensky has no intention of implementing Minsk agreements (Ed: he is not wrong)
Medvedev referring to decision he made in 2008 to recognize Ossetia and Abkhazia which “saved hundreds of thousands of lives”
Medvedev: The conflict today is much larger today than in 2008. But back then we didn’t know what the Western reaction will be. Today we know all the sanctions that will be used against us. But we also have experience to confront them
Medvedev: It will be hard to live under sanctions but eventually the pressure on us will dissipate once the West gets tired and will ask us themselves to return to talks. That’s how things have happened in the past
Medvedev talks about “our people”, Russian citizens in the Donbas. Refers that US launches a rescue operation to save even a single American hostage. Says here we are dealing with tens of thousands Russian citizens
Medvedev: A very large part of Russian population will support recognition of DNR and LNR
Putin: I have not talked to any one of you in advance and I am hearing all of your reports for the first time (Ed: hard to believe)
Duma Chairman Volodin: We ask you (Putin) to recognize DNR and LNR
Chairwoman of Federation Council Matviyenko: Puppet regime in Kyiv cannot decide anything. The west can tell Kyiv to resolve the conflict and they would immediate do it (Ed: they wouldn’t)
Matviyenko: We have to recognize DNR and LNR. The time has come
Matviyenko: What bad things has Russia done to Ukraine? (Ed: the list may not fit in 280 chars)
Matviyenko: We supplied cheap gas. We didn’t interfere in Ukrainian domestic affairs unlike the US. For 30 years, we have not raised the “illegal transfer” of Crimea to Ukraine (Ed: it wasn’t illegal)
Matviyenko: We had no morale right to allow NATO fleet to be based in Crimea
Secretary of Security Council Patrushev: US has declared Russia and China as enemies in its strategic documents (Ed: it hasn’t)
Patrushev: We don’t need talks with Biden. We need to solve our goals. Their goal is to destroy Russia
Patrushev: We need to support Duma’s recommendation to recognize DNR and LNR to defend people of Donbas
Patrushev: Donbas is only one of the conflicts organized by the US
Patrushev: Give 2-3 day ultimatum to the US to end the conflict and then we can have talks with Biden. But since they won’t accept it, the only answer is recognition
PM Mishulin: We have already been working to counter sanctions that will be placed on Russia after recognition
PM Mishulin: Need to recognize DNR and LNR if no progress is made with the West
SVR head Naryshkin: Kyiv has no intention to implement Minsk
Naryshkin: War propaganda from the West is designed to provoke Kyiv to solve Donbas with military means
Naryshkin: We must recognize DNR and LNR. Can give our Western partners one last chance to make Kyiv accept Minsk
Incredible Naryshkin-Putin exchange

After prodding from Putin, SVR head Naryshkin says: I support recognition of DNR and LNR as part of Russia
Putin: Wait a second. We aren’t talking about that. We are talking about independence
Naryshkin: Then I support independence
Minister of Internal Affairs Kolokoltsev: Compares Ukraine and Minsk agreements with Nazi Germany signing surrender documents and then not implementing for 7 years. (Ed: Is this acknowledgment that Minsk was a surrender document?)
Kolokoltsev: Need to recognize Donbas but all of it - including Mariopol (Ed: Mariopol is not held by Donbas separatists)
Lavrov: They are attacking Slavic people and everything Russian. We need to send a signal to the whole Russian world
Lavrov: Offering the West 2-3 day ultimatum is a matter of taste but won’t change anything
Shoigu: Javelins are not a defensive weapon. Ukraine has more of them now than some NATO countries. We’ve been left no choice. We must recognize
Head of Rosgvardiya Zolotov: We don’t have a border with Ukraine. It’s a border with US. Because Ukraine is their vassal state
Putin: I have heard from all of you and will make a decision today

That was quite a show. “West Wing” Russian-style

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More from @DAlperovitch

Feb 23
Quick thoughts on Putin’s brief press conference today🧵
Putin referred on 4 occasions to Kyiv government or President as ‘acting’ and once as ‘current’. He never once mentioned Zelensky by name
Ed: He tends to do that with his enemies as a way to make it clear that they are beneath him. Ex. Famously referring to Navalny as ‘Berlin patient’
Read 13 tweets
Feb 22
A few thoughts on Putin, Lenin, Soviet Union and the Czars…🧵
In his speech yesterday, Putin directed a fairly large amount of hate towards Lenin for ‘creating’ the Soviet Union republics and giving them an option to quit the Union. It was quite a spectacle
And I wonder if by doing so, he is actively trying to diminish Lenin’s role in Russia’s history and, in the process, turn himself into a much more consequential historical figure in comparison
Read 9 tweets
Feb 21
Putin is expected to give a televised address shortly #WatchThisSpace

Likely will announce recognition of DNR and LNR per unanimous recommendation of his Security Council. Will Western leaders keep on with diplomatic efforts after such move?
Speech in progress now:
So far, a history lesson on the Soviet Union and what Lenin did or did not do 100 years ago
Read 33 tweets
Feb 20
Some reflections on #MSC2022 and Russia-Ukraine conflict as the conference wraps up:

One of the things that struck me the most in conversations with officials here is the lack of discussion of the “Day After Invasion” scenarios 🧵
I’ve been convinced since early December that Russian invasion of Ukraine was highly likely. The Biden administration is now assessing that it is ‘imminent’
Indeed, the Russian force mobilization and positioning is now complete and they can launch the invasion at any moment
Read 20 tweets
Feb 12
There is a lot of current discussion about the types of severe sanctions that the US would place on Russia in the event of invasion, but not as much about how Russia can hit back at the US and European economies in response 🧵
Western sanctions on Russian oil and gas industry (except for NS2 pipeline), as well as blacklisting them from SWIFT bank payment system, seem to be off the table
reuters.com/world/europe/s…
Sanctions on NS2 seem to be a certainty but they are not going to matter much to Putin in the event that Russia actually brings Ukraine into its sphere of influence with military force
Read 18 tweets
Feb 10
I’ve been convinced since mid December that the RU invasion of UKR is very likely. But I recognize that a lot of people disagree (not least of all, many in UKR government — at least publicly)

It is always good to reevaluate your assumptions so let’s red team the alternatives 🧵
I have heard 2 predominant theories of why Putin might not invade:

1. He will recognize the significant risks and costs of an operation and pull back at the last minute

2. This was a bluff from day one and he was never planning to invade

Let’s evaluate both systematically
First, the pullback theory

Essentially, some people seem to believe that Putin—who, whatever else you want to say about him, is no dummy—launched a massive troops buildup (and not recently, but back last spring) and only just now realized that it is not going to work
Read 30 tweets

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