Thread by @DAlperovitch

Putin is expected to give a televised address shortly #WatchThisSpace

Likely will announce recognition of DNR and LNR per unanimous recommendation of his Security Council. Will Western leaders keep on with diplomatic efforts after such move?

Speech in progress now:

So far, a history lesson on the Soviet Union and what Lenin did or did not do 100 years ago

He is blasting Lenin pretty hard for setting up Soviet Republics and allowing them to leave the Union

Yet: ‘I don’t blame anyone. The situation back then was very hard'

Putin: ‘Ukraine was created by Lenin. He is its author and creator’

Putin: No one thought about the future in the 1920s (Ed:I mplication is that, unlike Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin, Putin actually thinks about the future)

Is Putin trying to set a Guinness record for the longest invasion announcement in history?

Putin is a pretty boring history lecturer ...(to say nothing about his accuracy)

This is an incredibly long-winded attack on Ukraine's right to exist as a state. Is he really going to finish it up with just a declaration of DNR/LNR independence? Would seem like a huge rhetorical letdown...

Now he is talking about water, gas and electricity prices in Ukraine. First invasion announcement ever to mention these things? H/T @pwnallthethings

I think I figured out Putin's master plan! He won't invade. He will just put all Ukrainians into permanent sleep with this speech

Boy does Putin seem to hate corruption (maybe just in Ukraine though) according to his speech. Just a regular Eliot Ness...

Now he is talking about the shutting down of TV channels and harassment of Rada members in Ukraine. Reference to his close friend Medvedchuk

Putin: 'Radical islamic organizations' are used by foreign intelligence agencies to terrorize Crimea

Putin: Ukraine is trying to create its own nuclear weapons, which they have Soviet-era expertise for. It will not be hard for them

Oh boy...

This speech is really not about the Donbas...

Now Putin is talking about a threat to Russia from NATO 'air forces' deployed from Ukrainian bases

Is anyone keeping track of the number of pretexts used so far for invasion? I've lost count long ago

Now he just added another - taking down of monument to Russian General Suvorov in Ukraine

Putin: 'Ukraine joining NATO is a direct threat to Russia'

So do invasion skeptics listening to this speech still think Putin will declare victory after declaring DNR and LNR independence and pull back troops?

Putin doing the obligatory reference to 'Not one inch' on NATO expansion. He is trying his best to help @e_sarotte sell some more copies of her (truly excellent ) book...

Putin asks the West: 'Why are you trying to make Russia into an enemy?'

Then answers himself: The West wants to destroy Russia

Putin makes another obligatory reference to 4-5 minute US missile flight time to Moscow

I have to say - among all possible pretexts for invasion - I never once imagined they would use the old 'Ukraine is building nuclear weapons' excuse...

Putin: The position of the West has not changed. They are trying to blackmail us with sanctions, which they would put in place on Russia regardless of what happens in Ukraine. The goal - to curtail Russia's economic growth. Only because we exist

I think he actually does believe this and that's why sanction threat were never an effective deterrent

And just 52 mins later he is finally getting to the Donbas...

Another genocide reference

And here we go: Putin moves to recognize DNR and LNR

Putin demands Kyiv to end all military actions. 'If they don't, Ukraine will be solely responsible for all future outcomes'

Speech finally over

And Putin now signs the LNR and DNR recognition statements with leaders of both regions

Quite an anticlimactic end to an hour long speech. But he ended it with a clear threat of response if 'Kyiv continues military actions'

Pretext is in place. War can be launched at any moment