How should we respond to Russian aggression but avoid escalation that leads us down the path of a terrible Russia-US conflict? 🧵
We have to respond forcefully and send a message to Putin and the rest of the world that this outrageous aggression will not be tolerated
However, priority #1 for Biden administration is rightly to avoid a war with Russia. That will be horrendous for the world and a scenario no one wants
I fear that sanctions that actually choke Russia's economy can lead us precisely down this path as I wrote about yesterday
What can we do then?
First, we need to go after the assets of Putin's oligarchs (especially his 'wallets'). Seize real-estate, yachts, etc that they have overseas
Second, we need to reinforce NATO and send a message that further aggression in Europe WILL be met with force
Last, as I wrote about in December, we need to deploy intermediate range ballistic missiles around Russia's periphery. Putin is clearly afraid of that. Let's give him some of the things he is afraid of - MK41s armed with Tomahawks in the Baltics
That will be a response he will be very concerned about. It will give us leverage we desperately need over Russia right now

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More from @DAlperovitch

Feb 24
It's becoming very clear that in the very near future, Russia is going to achieve it's objectives of overthrowing Ukrainian government and establish a puppet regime

Let’s talk about what happens next🧵
The first thing that Russian intelligence are going to do (likely already doing) is hunting down any current members of Ukrainian government that are unlikely to switch sides and kill/capture them. They are going to eliminate all opposition to their rule in the most brutal way
Whoever they install to run the country - probably some oligarch like Medvedchuk - will call for unity and peace and proclaim himself as a savor of the country that was left in ruins by previous ‘Nazi junta'
Read 9 tweets
Feb 24
Putin giving an emergency speech right now
Using NATO expansion as an excuse
Putin: 'It's the question of life or death for us'
Read 10 tweets
Feb 23
Quick thoughts on Putin’s brief press conference today🧵
Putin referred on 4 occasions to Kyiv government or President as ‘acting’ and once as ‘current’. He never once mentioned Zelensky by name
Ed: He tends to do that with his enemies as a way to make it clear that they are beneath him. Ex. Famously referring to Navalny as ‘Berlin patient’
Read 13 tweets
Feb 22
A few thoughts on Putin, Lenin, Soviet Union and the Czars…🧵
In his speech yesterday, Putin directed a fairly large amount of hate towards Lenin for ‘creating’ the Soviet Union republics and giving them an option to quit the Union. It was quite a spectacle
And I wonder if by doing so, he is actively trying to diminish Lenin’s role in Russia’s history and, in the process, turn himself into a much more consequential historical figure in comparison
Read 9 tweets
Feb 21
Putin is expected to give a televised address shortly #WatchThisSpace

Likely will announce recognition of DNR and LNR per unanimous recommendation of his Security Council. Will Western leaders keep on with diplomatic efforts after such move?
Speech in progress now:
So far, a history lesson on the Soviet Union and what Lenin did or did not do 100 years ago
Read 34 tweets
Feb 21
Putin is holding a meeting of his Security Council today. #WatchThisSpace
The meeting is being held right now. Lavrov is giving a bleak report on state of diplomatic efforts
Lavrov: European unity at #MSC2022 proved to us once again that it only makes sense for us to talk to the Americans
Read 44 tweets

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