Thread by @hendry_hugh

Conjecture for eclectica wannabe macro analysts.
Euro Nat Gas Price Structure is All Wrong.
Even tho spot price up lots today and 3x previous winter hi's, its the back-end that ain't right...

That's front month, trading at $62 per million Btu/hour Henry Hub basis which trades < $5...let me say that again, the European power network is similar to the US with both taking c 50% from gas turbine generators except europeans are paying 12x more and this ain't over...

Mar 23 trades higher and much closer to front. That's unusual. Europe needs gas NOW and front winter should operate at huge premiums to bring gas forward. Send me chart of the price compression between Mar 22 and 2023 Mar...I'm guessing the move's been huge. Amaranth teen spirit?

But 2023 trading 40% less. Curve should have that shape but I think the levels across the spectrum are too low, that both spot and forward should be massively high. Price regime says Vlad wins. That a meek Europe bends to the mighty Blunderer, that they light up Nordstream II.

They're contemptible. No balls. Allowed themselves to be governed by the Dadaism of loony greens and zero tolerance for oil and gas discovery. Presently closing almost all nuclear and (rightly) starting to price coal out of the equation. They got NOTHIN. Wind but no batteries

Let's interrupt this for a thought bubble. What if Super Mario failed to generate inflation when President of the ECB but manages to do it as President of Italy? These hollow men crave/need the oxygen of popularity, they'll do anything to save their ass.

So yeah they'll crumble unless the US somehow manages to hold the line - I fear weird natural seismic activity around the seabed carrying that pipeline and the transformers that regulate pressure and keep the thing humming...

Have you seen the chart of Russian naval activity in international waters ? they spend a disproportionate time above the huge fibre network hubs that control our internet - I wonder why? But I'd do the same with my navy in the vicinity of those gas pipes...

Anyway, superMario is intent on using the public purse to pay for the "temporary" high gas price. He knows the forward curve, so he knows the gas price is likely to fall 40%. So why not as a g/will gesture have the gov pay for those higher energy bills? He's committed 6 yards...

But like JR Ewing in Dallas, what if "them gas prices ain't never coming' down, Bobby!" Has Draghi launched the first helicopter money scheme in Europe. And if gas for march 2023 trades 200 those 6 yards might need to become 26, if not 36 yards etc. This needs watching.

Engage with me. Add/ subtract, tear it to pieces, present the best monetisation. Over to you...

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