Macro Confessions Part XXV (APRIL,2012) This week I felt a movement in the time-expanse of the financial universe. In a land far, far away, an elderly, wise man of my acquaintance, my Master and Macro Overlord, bore testimony to a prophecy of bad tidings.
This week we set about deciphering the message delivered by the Godfather of Macro, George Soros, and his latest face-off challenge to China's President Xi. Dr Who (or is that Hugh?) gets trippy to ask, are his apocalyptic warnings from 12 years ago now in play?
This week, in the high stakes game of international trade, I ask, is China the nation that reneged? Does history repeat? Has the Chinese property market mimicked the unstable rise of the DJI in the 1920s? Will there be blood?
Regrets for being 10 years early? Perhaps, if only I had used the Chinese zodiac. Can the world save China, asks Chris? I answer by using an analogy with the gripping finale of The Squid Game. Short answer, No...
The curious tale of the Brazilian Icarus, Eike Batista, is revealed as well as the Soros Open Society. Just why does America's Right revere Vlad the Blunderer? And will the rubble's gold backing protect the expansive Putin's flank? Not bloody likely!
In probably the best of the series, I travel from the Gold Standard to Bretton Woods and ask, are these the last days of the EuroDollar Standard? A China reset will likely usher in the end of the dollar hegemony, how will nations reconfigure after the great crash?
Chris continues to spin his wheel...

Can you dare miss this special issue..?

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More from @hendry_hugh

Feb 3
Soros and the Chinese horoscope are becoming aligned
This is what I had to say in April 2012, ten years ago…I see the global economy grotesquely distorted by the presence of fixed exchange rates, the unravelling of which will create financial anarchy, just as it did in the 1920s and 1930s.
Back then the relevant fixes were around the gold standard. Today it is the dollar/renminbi peg. I believe we might soon come to question whether China is committed to maintaining its currency peg with the dollar.They should, but will they?
Read 12 tweets
Feb 2
I'm going to review this,
Read 7 tweets
Feb 1
Have you watched The Master's 9 minutes today? Yoda has spoken. The time is now. I'm a time investor. Forget value, growth etc, time is the essence of macro. Now that I get the significance of 12 Yrs to the Chinese I just know that now is right to walk on the macro short side.
But tell me, as I rehearse this week's podcast, just what economic good would a China deval provide? Sure Taiwan did the same in 1997. Interestingly, after all these years it has finally strengthened back to pre-deal levels...just in time for the games to begin once more?
Read 8 tweets
Jan 29
Seemed an appropriate swan song...St Barts forever
This year's markets are wonderfully ambiguous, if only SPX were down +20pc I’d know what to do. Anyway, I like a book that begins with something quotable - it means that my REM problem solving software is running inside my head.
I’m lifting from The Anomaly by Hervé Le Tellier but I’m yet to get really motoring with it. Then I’m gonna read it in French, it’s original language. But truth be told, I’m still in mourning for having finished Atlas Shrugged, where will my daily inspiration come from?
Read 5 tweets
Jan 29
Anyway...perhaps I should formally introduce this week's podcast.The conversation is fast paced, even so I try and explain the Quantity Theory of Insanity. The Alchemy of Finance, it is not...
We consider The Secret Policeman's Macro Ball, an annual illuminati gathering of the great minds in macro hedge fund management. The Miami event that you are assured not to receive an invitation to. Just why do the top managers share their best-ideas with their competition?
Regrets, I got a few and we travel back to 9 December 2008 for me to rage at my younger self. You see, 2 years before, I predicted a deflationary event that would send Treasury bond prices surging and the gold price crashing.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 27
Editing the HedgeFund Masterclass for release tomorrow. Wanted to share a snippet. Will be released usual channels and of course YouTube. Sometimes you just know you made a belter youtube.com/channel/UCs4X8…
Peloton and all those muppets that list with the exorbitant privilege of a management category of shares with more voting rights than us plebs. You better be in a bull market cause if you mess up, we, the dogs of capitalism, are going to snarl and bite and blow your house down...
Read 4 tweets

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