You want to join my Eclectica virtual hedge fund game? You bought the NFT yet? Damn I haven't dropped them yet. But this is how it might look in a closed chat environment. Think of this as a trial...
I used to send these thought bubbles to my intel team. I'd examine charts and read all day long. This was before I'd heard of threads and twitter, imagine the fun I could have had back then...
I'd emerge from my dark room with music blasting and reveal what the macro voices in my head were screaming. I'd challenge my intel team to make sense of my exclamations. You want to be my intel team today, right now? You up for that challenge?
Right, I wanted to ask about natural gas. How do I say this without coming across as a crackpot (stop giggling at the back)? With oil motoring to $100 why hasn't gas at least tried to emulate its shadowing of the crude breakout back at the start of this century?
It seems sacrilege, line charts from barcharts and I get the flaw of continuos cash futures and different fwd curves ignoring +ve V -ve roll but I think we can say that perf has detached itself during the Fed QE era but why? Or indeed can I say that? Roll adj are they the same?
Roses are red but oil is blue... 
And why is it just us, the night sentinels, that know the NG price adjusted to a thermal metric per barrel of oil is trading at just 5.8x the spot price $4.7, or $27.30. I mean even writing that feels wrong...is it wrong? Can you correct me? Please correct me...
...or what about Europe where it's been trading thanks to Vlad the Blunderer at the recent wides of $400 (more like $145 today) and Asia seems to gobble it up via LNG for $200, sometimes $300 per barrel ? What's so naive about asking if US gas is the cheapest thing on the planet?
The US has the 4th largest reserve in the world. The curve is in backwardation. Seems to imply that it's of infinite and cheap supply, but why? Because it's all stranded State side? Cause the US can't get round to charging for the scarcity of releasing more CO2? Liberate US gas??
Anyone know how much % total American power generation is derived from burning gas? And tell me how to translate coal thermal unit pricing into barrel of oil equivalents? Is it even cheaper than gas? Oil vs coal burning US power generation, who knows the contribution from each?
I know that US industry 10 y ago was set to change its ways, replace / displace oil with gas but it never really happened en mass...why? Cause oil price fell back? Is this why we need a cap and levy carbon scheme in the US, to give prices a nudge, encourage switching to less C02?
Presumably US chemical co.s must enjoy an enormous comparative global advantage, they should be eating and ravaging the picnics of others? I tried a thought experiment. I compared $ stock of 2 nitrogen fertiliser co.s, one US, one EU. Surely the price will reveal all?
CF industries in blue v Yara in red but despite recent +ve perf you'd bet that they'd converge once more if you didn't know any better...barcharts.com again
Is this a bad example. Do transport costs make urea a locally derived business free of o/seas cheaper competition? Tell me, I'm curious. Can you think of better eg, where nat gas is the bulk feedcost but trans cost doesn't preclude o/trade. Post some charts but rebase to same fx
There seems unanimity that Vlad the B's tantrums must be met by an escalation in Nato spending. I just added up their collective spending, it's $1,176 billion. Say they raise that by 5%?? That's $60 bn. Feels like they'll do 2x that at least, you disagree?
Nordstream II cost best part of $ 10 yards, more when you factor in EU infrastructure but $10 bn buys you a 1,200 km undersea gas pipeline. Shortest hop across the Atlantic, from Newfoundland to Ireland is c. 3x that or 3,320 km...
Question why not liberate Europe from the Bear's clutch by building an Atlantic pipeline for what? $30 to $50 yards?? Better than defence spending and we've planted plenty of fibre cables, yes its not the same but you know what I mean, why not build it?? We could do this...
Imagine, a $50 bn investment and you take out Putin, liberate both Europe and the Russian people who suffer under his infinite dictatorship. The Bear supplies 50% of EU gas. We've had to switch back to coal this winter! The US gave China unfettered trading, made them v rich why?
Why not do the same? Allow EU to join a free Russia Together, oil and democracy, they'd be a global economic force - another US? Heck, make them pay for the thing and switch back to Nordstream. But any dictator tendencies from the russals and the Atlantic Freedom Pipe gets re-lit
Yeah, you're gonna tell me the environmentalists would go nuts. You can't even get permits for an Eastern state coastal pipeline. It's why we got to become more vocal. The enviro guys are bonkers, emotional hot heads increasingly pulling us closer to extinction. We can do better.
So that's your brief. Convince or disabuse me as to whether US Nat Gas is way too damn cheap. Show me catalysts. Not how we make money but when we make it, if at all. Pull out charts and pour your collective intel into the funnel and then we'll convene.
Hit me up at hughhendry.com or keep it all out there on the twitter platform. But most importantly, let's stay smart...
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