Thread by @samagreene

A bit of analysis, with the caveat that I am struggling to hold it together right now. People in my line of work aren't supposed to be affected by this stuff, but we are. Sorry.

The strategic ambiguity, as always, remains, but it is looking increasingly like cover for a war.

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1496678200654667777

I am trying very hard to find a way to read "de-militarization and de-nazification of Ukraine" as anything but full-scale invasion. I'm failing, but hoping someone better than me succeeds.

Putin declared a war by another name -- a "special military operation". He also said there would be no occupation, but if you can have a war you don't call a war, I suppose you can also have an occupation that you don't call an occupation.

The fact that he didn't say what he's going to do is meaningful. It's very hard to imagine that Putin goes on TV at 5:45am if he's planning to stay behind the cease-fire line. It is still possible that this leads only to a small-scale incursion. But it sure doesn't feel that way.

As I write this, @nytimes reports explosions in Kyiv, Kharkiv and elsewhere.

And Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk.

To be very clear, I'm not engaging in or inviting whataboutism. But what we are about to see in Ukraine is Putin's attempt to replicate US operations in Iraq, if they're able to effect the de-capitation of the Ukrainian state. Failing that, he'll settle for Serbia.

It's noteworthy that Putin drew a parallel -- Chechnya, Crimea, Syria, Donbas. What can we learn from that?

Crimea was peaceful, but Russia's operations in Chechnya and Syria involved the wholesale destruction of cities, with little or no regard for civilian casualties.

I'm not saying that's what Putin has in mind for Ukraine -- just that the Russian military has form.

But it is also worth noting that Russians have not seen their bombs fall on cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv and Odesa -- cities they've been to, where they have friends and relatives, and which are populated by people who look and sound like them. (Yes, chauvinism is a thing.)

Now reporting troops landing in Odesa, crossing into Kharkiv.

Russian troops now appearing in Odesa, Kharkiv. Have to assume that Kyiv is next.

We're going to learn a lot about human nature in the next few hours and days. We'll learn how easy or hard it is to fight and die for a cause or for an order. We'll learn how easy or hard it is to make people hate and kill.

We've heard predictions that Ukrainians will fight in the streets. Maybe. We've heard predictions that Russians won't tolerate the slaughter of their neighbors. Maybe. We've also heard predictions that this war wouldn't happen. Hell, I made those predictions. I was wrong.

Хай живе Україна.