Thread by @samagreene

Again, maintaining the ambiguity — but we look set to avoid a shooting war for now.

What comes next depends on your interpretation of why Putin made his move yesterday.

https://twitter.com/TitovAlexander/status/1496161090614530057

If you believe he’s after Ukraine in whole or in part, then expect Putin to wait and see how Kyiv reacts viz military posture, and how US and EU react viz sanctions, and then re-calibrate his risk-reward model before deciding how far and how hard to press on.

If you believe he’s just after DNR/LNR and has written off the rest of Ukraine, then expect gradual creep to secure key infrastructure (see Georgia’s ever-shrinking borders), but probably avoiding major war (and major sanctions).

If you think this was a face-saving way out of a corner he had painted himself into, then expect Putin to sit tight, until he paints himself into the next corner.

In any scenario, the pressure remains on, both for Kyiv and for Europe and the US, rhetorically and militarily. Moscow will effectively "reserve the right" to keep moving troops forward, forcing Kyiv, Brussels & DC to include the possibility of war in any and all calculations.

At the same time, one thing seems to be becoming less ambiguous: Moscow is drawing and fortifying a new border with Europe. In this regard, we need to pay close attention to Russia's new forward positions in Belarus, which are for all intents and purposes now permanent.

Even as the border between Russia and the EU effectively moves to the western side of Belarus, the border between Russia and Ukraine looks to be permanently unsettled. Though few are paying attention at the moment, this has to put Moldova in a very uncomfortable position, too.