Thread by @lucasmaruri

Russia-Ukraine conflict. What is going on?

This is a 21 bullet point recap of what has been happening in the conflict for the last 2 days.

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1)Ukraine Invasion by Russian soldiers started this early morning Thursday feb 24th.

Vladimir Putin have launched what could be the largest conflict in Europe since the second world war (WWII).

2)Putin aim is “to demilitarize” the pro-independence of Donbass region, Eastern Ukraine (specifically Donetsk and Lugansk provinces).

3)Russian “pacification” troops trespassed the border this morning, 2 days after the recognition of independence of the pro-Russian separatist regions.

4)In a nationally televised address ahead of the offensive, Putin said that Russia doesn’t plan to “occupy” its southern neighbor but said the action was necessary after the U.S. and its allies crossed Russia’s “red line” by expanding the NATO Alliance.

5)Russia launched a barrage of missile attacks early Thursday, with Ukraine’s Interior Ministry warning that the capital, Kyiv, was being targeted and urging citizens to go to shelters.

6)Ukraine’s border guard said that it was being shelled from five regions, including from Crimea in the south and Belarus to the north.

7)Lawmakers in Kyiv backed a nationwide state of emergency which could see officials impose restrictions on movement for at least 30 days.

8)There are forming long cues to exit Kyiv, and in the borders with neighboring countries such as Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland.

9)Ukraine has established a limit of UAH100,000 (equivalent to €3,000 or $3,400) of daily cash withdrawals from ATMs across the country, to reduce the risk of collapse of its banking system.

10)Ukraine said earlier that banks and ministry websites suffered another cyberattack that they blamed on Moscow

11)US officials had been warning that an operation like this one would happen imminently.

12)US President Joe Biden called Putin’s move “an unprovoked and unjustified attack” and said the “world will hold Russia accountable.

13)The NATO is not going to intervene. Pressure on western leaders to escalate “severe sanctions” on Russia. Biden said will meet with allies on Thursday and address American people on additional sanctions that will be imposed on Russia.

14) The United Nations Security Council is holding an emergence meeting, but keep in mind that Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council.

15)Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a "glaring violation" of international rights, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Thursday. "Germany condemns in the strongest possible terms this unscrupulous act by President Putin. Our solidarity goes out to Ukraine and its people,".

16)Germany halted certification of the Nordstram2 pipeline linking the country to Russia in response to the Kremlin’s recognition of two separatist regions in Ukraine.

17)Russia is confident it can shrug off Germany’s decision to halt certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and believes EU efforts to diversify the bloc’s energy sources will fail.

18)Possible Sanctions: tech export ban, blocking Russian banks from accessing western capital markets and restricting trading of Russian Government bonds.

19)Markets are tumbling worldwide. Equity markets are down -3%/-5%. Treasuries yields down sharply. Gold is up +3%. Bitcoin -7%.

20)Trading in Russian stock market has been suspended. The ruble extended declines to the lowest since 2016 after Russian forces attacked cities across Ukraine. The Russian currency fell by nearly 3.5% to 84.1 per dollar in onshore trading Thursday.

21)Crude oil is up +8.5% today. The Brent Barrel is trading at 105$/b, a level not seen since 2014. The crisis stokes more concerns about impact on European energy supply, with leakages to the world’s economy.

22) Meanwhile, the Bank of Russia's reserves, which accounted for $635bn as early February, are rising in market value, as the bulk of them are in gold.

Also, the price of gas and crude oil, of which the country is one of the largest exporters in the world, is rising.

23) The US ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, warned that an all-out Russian invasion could displace five million people, triggering a new European refugee crisis.

24) Putin threatens the EU and NATO after his attack on Ukraine: "Whoever tries to stop us from the outside or create any threats to our country must know that the response will be immediate and will have consequences that have never been faced in its history"

25) Ukrain warns that Russian forces have entered Kyiv region near Belarous Border.

NATO to activate defense plans, Stoltenberg says (Secretary General of NATO)

26) The #Russia-#Ukraine conflict means more price hikes for fertilizer and rising costs for farmers - which could mean even more food inflation, punishing poorer countries the most.

27) Ukraine closed its airspace to civilian flights citing a high risk to safety, while Europe's aviation regulator also warned against the hazards to flying in bordering areas of Russia and Belarus.

28) China hasn’t condemned Russia’s decision to recognize separatist regions in Ukraine and send in troops. China rejects calling Russia move “invasion”.

29) Putin said on TV that the military operation seeks the “denazification” of its sovereign neighbor.

“The goal is to protect people who have been subjected to bullying and genocide… for the last eight years".

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is Jewish.

30) Credit Defautl Swaps (CDS) on Ukraine Government Treasury Bonds are currenlty signalling an 80% chanve of default. Distress keeps mounting.

31) Boris Johnson: "We mus collectively end dependen on russia Oil and Gas". The UK agrees on a "Massive Package" of sanctions on Russia.

32) The US State Department said that China and Russia were working together to create a new "profoundly illiberal" world order, of which actions in Ukraine were just a part, recalling the "no limits" partnership that China and Russia had announced earlier this month.

33) The adviser to Ukraine's Presidential Office says that, since this early morning, Russia is rejecting any talks.

34) The southern flank, at the foot of Crimea, has collapsed quite easily.

The Russian advance is fast and the city of Kherson, an important communications hub on the West-East axis, has already been secured.

35) The door is open to an extension of the offensive towards the strategic ports of Mykolaiv and Odessa, where this morning there have already been attacks on the Ukrainian fleet.

It also adds renewed pressure on the cities along the Sea of ​​Azov coast.

36) Ukraine confirms information about missile and bomb attacks on airports in five cities: Boryspil, Ozerny, Kulbakin (Nikolaev), Chuguev, Kramatorsk and Chernobaevka (Kherson).‌‌

37) Lithuania and Moldova have declared a state of emergency in connection with the Russian operation in Ukraine.

38) Russia will seek to install a puppet government in Kiev within days. The Ukrainian government has very limited means to resist the onslaught. In many respects what we are witnessing represents the reversal of the fall of the Berlin Wall and of the Soviet Empire in 1989-1991.

39) Europe will have to wake up to recognise that the world has changed and that it must adjust accordingly. There must be a major expansion of defence spending throughout the region, providing another extension of deficit spending, keeping up levels of indebtedness.

40) Military conflicts generally are stagflationary: more inflation due to scarcity, uncertainty and supply disruptions, less economic growth.

41) Ukraine warns about the presence of Russian tanks at 150km from Kyiv

42) It is not clear that Europe has the resolve to shut Russia out of the SWIFT money transfer system, which was one of the possible sanctions commented days ago.

43) Ukrainian gas pipeline company confirms that flows through the country (from Russia into the European Union) continue "smoothly". Some experts in the field are affraid that the EU will buy more Russian natural gas -not less- in the coming days.

44) There is a clear moral hazard problem here: European countries have been selling weapons to Russia and buying Crude (the US as well) or Gas from Russia while condemning Russian attack on Ukraine.

45) Meanwhile, the Benchmark of European Natural Gas Prices (Dutch TTF Gas Futures) rises +50% today

46) Robert Habeck, Vice Chancellor of Germany, said that Germany will build up gas reserves for next year.

The question is, from whom are they planning to buy the gas from?

47) Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is calling on citizens to take up arms to protect their country amid Russia’s invasion.

48) An EU diplomat says sanctions package will include component geared towards energy sector. Also says sanctions will target oligarchs, especially those around Putin, and he doesn't exclude another sanctions package on Belarus.

49) Holzmann and Stournaras Council members of the European Central Bank (ECB) said the conflict in Ukraine may delay monetary stimulus exit.

These are 2 (Austrian and Greek) out of the total of 23 members of the ECB Council.

50) The consequences of the war for the world food market could be devastating:

**50% of Ukrainian wheat exports go to the Middle East and Africa.
**Egypt imports 70% of its wheat from Ukraine.

51) US working on plan with international energy agency (IEA) on combined release of additional crude oil from global strategic reserves

52) Former prime ministers of Italy and finland resign from Russian corporate boards that they were working for

53) This conflict will result in the isolation of the world’s 11th-largest economy (Russia) and one of its largest commodity producers. The immediate global implications will be higher inflation, lower growth and some disruption to financial as deeper sanctions take hold.

54) Russian #oil offered at record discount vs spot price, as buyers pause purchases from that specific country

55) G7: "Putin is on the wrong side of history".

Ukraine warns that Russia captures airfield near Kyiv.

56) Gas traders pricing in a near term disruption of Nord Stream 1 deliveries.

57) Europe depends above all on Russian gas (40% of the total gas consumption) and other metals such as Palladium (40%), Aluminum (18%) and Nickel (18%, key to the development of a green economy).

58) Michael Kofman, specialist in Russian studies, has elaborated a map of the possible planned invasion

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1496876298051989504?s=20&t=W8d6Peq2iFAFZkz6yudr3g

59) This is the moral hazard problem I commented about before:

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1496887607422291968?s=20&t=ykSyGj03QI4apjhIb2PToQ

60) Russian flagship crude Urals is toxic right now as traders and refiners don't want to be seen touching it (and banks are reluctant to finance purchases). Urals offered today at $11.60 a barrel below Dated Brent, a record wide discount

61) Ukraine presidency says Russian forces have captured Chernobyl. This is the fastest via to reach Kyiv from Belarus.