$MARS (@mars_protocol) lockdrop closes in ~32 hours.
I tried calculating / speculating how much you could make from locking $UST. 𧡠π
[1/x]
I tried calculating / speculating how much you could make from locking $UST. 𧡠π
[1/x]
2/
For context: I explained @mars_prrotocol, and how to get in on the lockdrop here before:
For context: I explained @mars_prrotocol, and how to get in on the lockdrop here before:
https://twitter.com/shivsakhuja/status/1495887280925339648?s=20
3/
Let's say you intend to lock $1,000.
Here's how many $MARS tokens that would get you depending on lockup period:
β’ 3 mo: 127 $MARS
β’ 6 mo: 357 $MARS
β’ 9 mo: 664 $MARS
β’ 12 mo: 1,022 $MARS
β’ 15 mo: 1,431 $MARS
β’ 18 mo: 1,878 $MARS
Let's say you intend to lock $1,000.
Here's how many $MARS tokens that would get you depending on lockup period:
β’ 3 mo: 127 $MARS
β’ 6 mo: 357 $MARS
β’ 9 mo: 664 $MARS
β’ 12 mo: 1,022 $MARS
β’ 15 mo: 1,431 $MARS
β’ 18 mo: 1,878 $MARS
4/
Note that these numbers are estimates and will likely drop more before the lockdrop is over.
Note that these numbers are estimates and will likely drop more before the lockdrop is over.
5/
There are a total of 1 Billion $MARS tokens.
50M $MARS tokens will be distributed in the lockdrop
So, if $MARS has a FDV of $1B, then 1 $MARS = $1.
Here's how much you make at different prices of Mars π
There are a total of 1 Billion $MARS tokens.
50M $MARS tokens will be distributed in the lockdrop
So, if $MARS has a FDV of $1B, then 1 $MARS = $1.
Here's how much you make at different prices of Mars π
6/
Case 1. @mars_protocol is at a $50M FDV.
$MARS = $0.05
β’ 3 mo: 0.64%
β’ 6 mo: 1.79%
β’ 9 mo: 3.32%
β’ 12 mo: 5.11%
β’ 15 mo: 7.16%
β’ 18 mo: 9.39%
Case 1. @mars_protocol is at a $50M FDV.
$MARS = $0.05
β’ 3 mo: 0.64%
β’ 6 mo: 1.79%
β’ 9 mo: 3.32%
β’ 12 mo: 5.11%
β’ 15 mo: 7.16%
β’ 18 mo: 9.39%
7/
Case 2. @mars_protocol is at a $250M FDV.
$MARS = $0.25
β’ 3 mo: 3.19%
β’ 6 mo: 8.942%
β’ 9 mo: 16.61%
β’ 12 mo: 25.55%
β’ 15 mo: 35.78%
β’ 18 mo: 46.96%
Case 2. @mars_protocol is at a $250M FDV.
$MARS = $0.25
β’ 3 mo: 3.19%
β’ 6 mo: 8.942%
β’ 9 mo: 16.61%
β’ 12 mo: 25.55%
β’ 15 mo: 35.78%
β’ 18 mo: 46.96%
8/
Case 3. @mars_protocol is at a $1B FDV.
$MARS = $1.00
β’ 3 mo: 12.78%
β’ 6 mo: 35.78%
β’ 9 mo: 66.44%
β’ 12 mo: 102.22%
β’ 15 mo: 143.11%
β’ 18 mo: 187.83%
Case 3. @mars_protocol is at a $1B FDV.
$MARS = $1.00
β’ 3 mo: 12.78%
β’ 6 mo: 35.78%
β’ 9 mo: 66.44%
β’ 12 mo: 102.22%
β’ 15 mo: 143.11%
β’ 18 mo: 187.83%
9/
Longer lockups are extremely incentivized. Weigh this against your opportunity cost to decide if you want to enter and if so, how long to lock for.
I consider my opportunity cost for 12 mo at >= 20 (@anchor_protocol)
Longer lockups are extremely incentivized. Weigh this against your opportunity cost to decide if you want to enter and if so, how long to lock for.
I consider my opportunity cost for 12 mo at >= 20 (@anchor_protocol)
10/
But since $MARS unlocks sooner, your opportunity cost is actually less because you have liquidity after the $MARS airdrop, and can sell / stake / swap / farm those $MARS tokens.
But since $MARS unlocks sooner, your opportunity cost is actually less because you have liquidity after the $MARS airdrop, and can sell / stake / swap / farm those $MARS tokens.
11/
How can we speculate about @mars_protocol FDV? Other lending protocols?
@screamdotsh $SCREAM
β’ FDV: $104M
β’ TVL: 743M
β’ FDV / TVL: 0.14
@AaveAave $AAVE
β’ FDV: $2B
β’ TVL: $11.6B
β’ FDV / TVL: 0.17
@CompoundFinance $COMP
β’ FDV: $1.1B
β’ TVL: $6.7B
β’ FDV / TVL: 0.16
How can we speculate about @mars_protocol FDV? Other lending protocols?
@screamdotsh $SCREAM
β’ FDV: $104M
β’ TVL: 743M
β’ FDV / TVL: 0.14
@AaveAave $AAVE
β’ FDV: $2B
β’ TVL: $11.6B
β’ FDV / TVL: 0.17
@CompoundFinance $COMP
β’ FDV: $1.1B
β’ TVL: $6.7B
β’ FDV / TVL: 0.16
12/
@anchor_protocol $ANC:
β’ FDV: $3.3B
β’ TVL: $11.5B
β’ FDV / TVL: 0.28
@HundredFinance $HND:
β’ FDV: $142M
β’ TVL: 257M
β’ FDV / TVL: 0.56
@anchor_protocol $ANC:
β’ FDV: $3.3B
β’ TVL: $11.5B
β’ FDV / TVL: 0.28
@HundredFinance $HND:
β’ FDV: $142M
β’ TVL: 257M
β’ FDV / TVL: 0.56
13/
Note: Each token is unique and influenced by many factors, so this methodology is dubious.
Ex: $HND incentivizes $HND lockups with boosted rewards.
Note: Each token is unique and influenced by many factors, so this methodology is dubious.
Ex: $HND incentivizes $HND lockups with boosted rewards.
14/
To be conservative, we can use a FDV/TVL of 0.1.
This means that $MARS needs:
β’ $500M TVL for $50M FDV ($0.05 MARS)
β’ $2.5B TVL for $250M FDV ($0.25 MARS)
β’ $10B TVL for $1B FDV ($1 MARS)
To be conservative, we can use a FDV/TVL of 0.1.
This means that $MARS needs:
β’ $500M TVL for $50M FDV ($0.05 MARS)
β’ $2.5B TVL for $250M FDV ($0.25 MARS)
β’ $10B TVL for $1B FDV ($1 MARS)
15/
Do what you wish with this info.
What I like about $MARS:
β’ Upside potential with no downside = nice risk / reward.
What I don't like about the lockdrop:
β’ Not sure if $MARS demand / tokenomics are strong enough
β’ Opportunity cost of locking coins
Do what you wish with this info.
What I like about $MARS:
β’ Upside potential with no downside = nice risk / reward.
What I don't like about the lockdrop:
β’ Not sure if $MARS demand / tokenomics are strong enough
β’ Opportunity cost of locking coins
16/
I will be locking a small amount of $UST for the full 18 months.
(Because locking for 18 months gets 14.7x more ROI than locking for 3 months)
I will be locking a small amount of $UST for the full 18 months.
(Because locking for 18 months gets 14.7x more ROI than locking for 3 months)
17/
I used this awesome tool that @flipsidecrypto shared:
share.streamlit.io/incioman/mars_β¦
I used this awesome tool that @flipsidecrypto shared:
https://twitter.com/flipsidecrypto/status/1495828255882063877?s=20&t=POqGbPSw3bROeVeELKbVgg
share.streamlit.io/incioman/mars_β¦
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