Russia still has overwhelming military advantage in #Ukraine, but every day of resistance-forced delay is raising the cost and risk to #Putin. Our piece. 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @bpolitics
Russian official tells us the 1-2 week plan is on track, aimed not at taking cities but forcing Ukraine's President #Zelensky to flee or surrender, replace with pro-Russia government, and destroy armed formations in the field. 2/
Plan would then carve #Ukraine in 3 pieces: Newly recognized Donetsk and Luhansk regions; rump Ukraine under Russian control; and western regions of Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv left alone. 3/
Rump #Ukraine would pay for own reconstruction, would have no military, would be incorporated into #Russia's air defense network, and might host Russian troops. 4/
Risk to #Russia plan is that each day without defeat raises Ukrainian morale, attracts new reserves, forces ugly capture of cities by force and gives time for #UkraineUnderAttack's allies to send more weapons, creating further delay and cost for Russia.
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