Sergej Sumlenny Profile picture
Feb 27 11 tweets 2 min read
This war will change Ukraine, Russia and Europe. A THREAD:
1) Ukrainian army is demonstrating extraordinary efficiency. Nobody expected (me too) that Ukrainian Air Defence will be that resilient. Ukrainian ground forces are the strongest in Europe. Cities' defence is very good;
2) Ukrainians are crushing Russian units and celebrating this. This is the level of moral developed within 8 years of the war. In 2014, Ukrainian army was not ready to shoot at Russian aggressor. In 2022, it is looking for a fight and enjoys it, knowing, they protect freedom;
3) We are witnessing an exceptional quantum leap in development of Ukrainian society. Maidan has given birth to modern Ukrainian political nation. But it remained divided: "Porokhobot", "Zelena Plisnyava" and other division. Now Ukrainian society has got grown, adult, and PhD;
4) We observe things one could not see even during WWII. People stay queues to military recruiting offices. My friends - males and females, lawyers, engineers, historians, publishers - go to army, and do it with a positive feeling of rage and anger and readiness to fight;
5) Not only the army has lived 8 years through the war. All Ukrainians have lived through it. Ukrainians are tired of the war - but not in the way they want to end it paying with their freedom. They want to end the war by destroying Russian tyranny. Because only this will last;
6) The joke "if Nato is fit for Ukraine?" is not a joke actually. We don't have any nation in Europe which is so strong, united and dedicated to freedom and liberty. After the war Ukrainians will thankfully remember their allies US, UK, PL, LT, EE, TUR, and will be a proud nation
7) If after thisUkraine will not be immediately accepted to the EU and Nato - I do not know what else should Ukraine fulfil. It is in interests of the EU and Nato to integrate strong self-convident Ukraine, otherwise mighty Ukraine will be more a competitor (alliance with TUR?)
8) Same time, we see a decline and even collapse in Russia. Russian army loses thousands of soldiers. In 3 days Russia has lost so much soldiers as in 3 years in Afghanistan. Russian media do not report any casualty - but also any victory. Russians are treated as idiots;
9) Russian political elites look to be shocked, hundreds of Putin's minions: actors, singers, journos are silent, they just do not post or say anything. Russia expected a collapse of Ukraine within days, but has got a devastating respond by Ukrainians and the unity of the West;
10) Of course, Russia has reserves in manpower and equipment. They are also capable to terror air raids against civilians. But this will not help to demoralize Ukrainians. UKR want peace, see above, but they understand now very clearly, they need a collapse of Russia for peace;
11) We'll have more days of heavy fighting. The EU and Nato must continue to provide Ukraine with military support. This is a war for Europe. This war can and must be won. Ukrainians have all the skills and the will for that. The world after this war will be much better. END

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More from @sumlenny

Feb 24
#Breaking THREAD Ukrainian Army Commander in Chief: at 00:00 25.02. Ukrainian army
in the South:
- Defends positions north to Kherson (Kherson lost?)
- Cars bridge at Kherson re-taken, UA army on Dnipro left bank;
- At Rykove, Russian offensive stopped, Russians suffer losses; /1
In the North:
- Fighting next to Hlukhiv (very close to RU border), Russian column stopped;
- 1st Tank Brigade stopped Russians on the Bilous river close to Chernihiv;
- In Volyn UA army set on defensive positions; /2
In the East:
- Defensive fights at Kharkiv, Sumy, Dovzhanka, Okhtyrka (no info who controls Sumy given);
- In Okhtyrka next wave of Russians stopped; /3
Read 6 tweets
Feb 24
Wir müssen es klar sagen: diejenigen, die seit Jahren ein "Dialog" mit Russland verlangten/förderten, sind an dem heutigen Kriegsausbruch mitschuldig. Mein ex-Arbeitgeber @boell_stiftung ist unter diesen Mitschuldigen. Jahrelang warnte ich als Büroleiter Kiew vor drohender Gefahr
Jahrelang versuchte man, mich stummzuschalten. Als "zu antirussisch" und "pro-ukrainisch" wurde ich eingestuft. Mir wurde verboten, sich über Russland kritisch zu äußern. Dies sollte fürs Büro Moskau eine "Gefahr" sein - auch meine Unterstützung für die ukrainische Sprache.
Seltsame Kontakte des ehemaligen Büroleiters Moskau waren für die Stiftung kein Problem. Dieser gründete gemeinsame Projekte mit dem ex-GRU-Offizier Trenin und schrieb auch nach seinem Verlassen der Stiftung den "Böll-Blog" über Russland. Nur die Ukraine war "nationalistisch".
Read 8 tweets
Feb 21
My forecast for Russia-Ukraine war (THREAD):
1)Putin has made his "big step": the whole show with SecCon meeting, 40 minutes speech on history, signing of treaties. He is happy for a while
2)Russia officially occupies Donbas part of Ukraine. Will provide some show (see above) /1
3) It is not to expect a full-scale offensive next days. Putin has got his show (see above) and can say he has won, the West is defeated;
4) Russia has its leverage: LDNR claims the whole territory of Donetsk/Luhansk oblast. Room for blackmailing Ukraine. /2
5) Escalation along the contact line can go on, but also can decrease. I think it is 35/65 chances. The main goal for Putin will be to force the West to start new "negotiations". Germany will be happy to imagine it is a great peace moderator nation; /3
Read 6 tweets
Feb 21
Putin is holding speech on Russian TV. Calls Ukraine once again "Soviet Ukraine created by Lenin". Sarcastically says he will "de-communize Ukraine for real" obviously meaning annexing territories of Ukraine, "given by Lenin", as he wrote in his article last year. /1
Putin holds a lecture on Lenin and Stalin role in state building. He looks to enjoy his role of a "history professor". Says about "lie, manipulation, nationalism". "A bomb under the USSR was the right of republics to leave the USSR", says the USSR collapsed on pure intrigues. /2
Speaks further a lot about "populistic bullshit like human rights and prosperity" which ruined the USSR. Blames national politics of later Communist Party, which has granted republics with rights of sovereignty. /3
Read 24 tweets
Feb 17
My warmest congratulations to all great citizens of 🇽🇰. You have fought hard for your independence. You have suffered a lot, were facing a strong and reckless oppressor. But you believed in freedom, dignity, in your centuries-long dreams. And now you shine as you always deserved!
My first visit to Kosovo was when I still had my Russian passport and knew nothing about Kovoso. I came full of prejudice, but luckily was curious enough to travel through the whole country. The contrast between what I've been told before, and what I have seen, was overwhelming.
I've fallen in love with Kosovo and visited it several times after, have met great people I admire, like @Petrit who explained me many things about Kosovo. Still, my first visit remains the most cool memory. While leaving Pristina, I gave my Russian passport to the border officer
Read 4 tweets
Feb 14
Ukrainian president Zelensky speaks to the nation. Says Ukrainians are united; Russia pressures on Ukraine since years; Ukrainian army is strong and well-armed; European security depends on Ukraine; Ukrainians wish peace; Ukraine stays for diplomacy; /1
Donbas and Crimea will return to Ukraine only after diplomatic talks; Ukraine fights back attacks on economy, protects its currency and economy; urges journalists to be independent and not follow oligarchs' orders; speaks to oligarchs who left Ukraine and urges to come back home;
speaks to state servants and asks to fulfil their duty to protect its nation, also to return back home if they left it already; 16 Feb, the day of expected attack, is proclaimed a day of Nation Unity, official buildings will be decorated with flags; Ukraine will not surrender;
Read 4 tweets

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