Question is "whether we allow Putin to turn back clock or whether we mobilize power to set boundaries for warmongers such as Putin. This requires own strength. Yes, we want to & will secure our freedom, democracy & prosperity".
Scholz outlines five areas of action to meet Zeitenwende challenges:
First, support Ukraine including with weapons.
Second, use sanctions to get Putin off his war path
"Putin won't change course over night. But soon Russian leadership will feel what high price it is paying".
Scholz:
Third area of action is increasing German contribution to collective security in NATO especially on Eastern flank.
Details additional Bundeswehr engagement in Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and in North/Baltic sea & Mediterranean.
"Whoever reads or talks with Putin cannot have doubt Putin pursues 🇷🇺 empire".
Scholz announces sea change in 🇩🇪 defense policy.
"From now on we will spend more than 2% on defense every year".
Announces 100 bn EURO special fund "Bundeswehr" in 2022 for necessary investments.
Scholz goes into detail in terms of capabilities needed including F-35 for participation in nuclear sharing, Heron drone, next generation fighter jets and tanks "should be built here in Europe with European partners especially France".
Fourth area is greater independence on energy policy. Two LNG terminals, gas/coal reserves, speeding up renewables.
Scholz: Fifth area is changing foreign policy.
"As much diplomacy as possible without being naive. Not being naive means: no dialogue for dialogue's sake. For real dialogue you need willingsness on both sides. This is what Putin lacks not only during last days and weeks".
It's a historic day &historic speech by Scholz. Focus was on challenges posed by Putin's imperialist project. It's a starting point for further fundamental re-think as part of National Security Strategy that will also have to include challenges posed by 🇨🇳 seen in tandem with 🇷🇺.
German goal has to be not to wake up on day of possible 🇨🇳 invasion of Taiwan thinking "Wow, we are so dependent on 🇨🇳 in critical areas so that we our ability to respond is severely limited. We wish we had addressed these dependencies early on & signalled effective deterrence".
Beijing increasingly ruthless in using dependencies for coercion. Germany needs full inventory of dependencies (also those 🇩🇪can use against 🇨🇳) . #Zeitenwende needs to mean ending geopoltically blind foreign economic policy by drastically reducing reliance on systemic rivals.
Yes, that was part of intention. But multilateralism, human rights & humanitarian aid are not just garnish but they will remain to have at core of 🇩🇪 foreign policy tailored to new environment. You can't thrive in the world on effective deterrence alone.
On many fronts, things will get a lot worse. I really hope 🇩🇪 government will make some decisive moves to get ahead of the curve & also prepare citizens for what's to come. Too many have impression 🇩🇪 does right thing only way too late after having been dragged into doing it.
🇩🇪 government needs utterly compelling reasons to go against majority view of allies on particular steps
e.g. sanctions because right now signaling determination vis-à-vis Kremlin key. If so it needs water-tight communications strategy. Otherwise 🇩🇪reputation needlessly tanks.
Criticism from sidelines is easy. I have lot of respect for those facing crisis bigger than any of Merkel's tenure right after coming to office in country with worst possible combination of dependencies on 🇷🇺 energy & basic mindset furthest away from what's needed in new world.
Green party MP & state secretary:
"In past years, I was always rock solid against increasing defense budget. This position is no longer tenable in light of current situation".
Exactly. With more voices like @svenlehmann Germany can achieve the rapid change of course it needs.
What makes Lehmann's intervention all the more remarkable is that he's one of the key voices of the Green party's left camp.
Things are moving fast in Green party discussion. @JTrittin, another prominent left-winger, says we need to deter worst case scenario of attack on NATO & deploy more 🇩🇪 troops to Lithuania.
"That's signal to Putin: if you attack🇱🇹 you don't just attack 🇱🇹 but also 🇩🇪 soldiers".
Not convinced cutting off all academic cooperation is right answer.
🇪🇺 needs to terminate all cooperation that enhances technological/economic/military base of Russia & anything that legitimizes Kremlin politically. But an across the board cut of everything is counterproductive.
With the necessary due diligence and risk management activities that don't enhance tech/economic/military base should be allowed to continue. Many will terminate anyway due to worsening conditions. But totally shutting door would hurt academics who are not on Putin's side.
Don't get me wrong: risk management/due diligence should be very tough (as it should have been anyway & should also be e.g. with China). But I believe it's in our interest not to fully shut the door on academic cooperation. We need to keep some channels open if conditions allow.
History was never reason for 🇩🇪 not to deliver weapons to 🇺🇦. If anything opposite.
Other reasons (not to provoke Putin in negotiations; won't make difference in fight) mute/disproven.
We shouldn't wait for more pictures of Putin's atrocities to pour in before changing course.
Greatest obstacle was political capital SPD & Green leaders would need to spend to overcome firm opposition in their parties to weapons deliveries. Given limited difference 🇩🇪 weapons would make I had sympathy for decision not to spend capital. Things are very different now.
As pictures of atrocities of Putin's troops pour in, 🇩🇪public debate will shift. But we shouldn't wait for that & take decision now regardless of how much 🇩🇪 able to deliver. When you are on the wrong side of history, the least you can do is switch lanes as soon as possible.
This week, Scholz has very much said & done right things. Today's speeches were strong. Positively surprising expectations on NS2 helped 🇩🇪 standing. Whatever the arguments on merit, holding off on SWIFT against US, UK, Central/Eastern Europe pressure is PR battle 🇩🇪 cannot win.
Scholz clearly on losing side of public argument of not going for SWIFT now. On substance would be curious to know how many of those calling passionately for SWIFT to be applied have looked into details and trade-off before making their passionate call. foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukrai…
Daleep Singh & others in US government have clearly stated sanctions are structured to spare energy sector since it's there that 🇷🇺 has systemic importance for global economy. One concern about SWIFT that is shared in Berlin is that if you cut 🇷🇺 off it will disrupt gas payments.
Habeck: „Wir erleben eine tiefe Zäsur. Sie wird den Energiesektor, die deutsche Wirtschaft, auch die Wehrhaftigkeit der Bundeswehr, das transatlantische Verhältnis noch einmal völlig neu ausrichten“.
Habeck bringt es auf den Punkt. Zäsur für meisten in meiner Generation, die (wie ich) schöne, aber falsche Grundgewißheiten aus 1989 gezogen hat. Umfassende Investitionen in Wehrhaftigkeit nötig, nicht nur beim Militär. Habecks etwas altertümlicher Begriff paßt da sehr gut.
Wenn Habeck davon spricht, "transatlantische Beziehungen" neu auszurichten, kann es auch hier kein zurück zu alten Gewißheiten geben angesichts der 🇺🇸inneren Turbulenzen & Orientierung Indo-Pazifik.🇪🇺 wird sich in Lage versetzen müssen, großen Teil Abschreckung selbst zu leisten.